397
FXUS64 KBRO 210806
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

The mid-level ridge will remained anchored over the Great Basin
region, as a 500mb trough continues to move over the Central U.S.
and Southern Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will
remain stalled well north of Deep South Texas.

Broad surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain
light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds through the
period. PWAT values are expected to remain around 2 inches for much
of the region today into Monday. The elevated moisture content
combined with the seabreeze will support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for today and Monday. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) Outlook for days 1 and 2 outline a general outlook for
thunderstorms for Deep South Texas today and Monday.

Temperatures will remain slightly normal through the period. Highs
today and Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are
expected to be in the range of 104 to 109, thus they will be below
the Heat Advisory criteria. Lows tonight are expected to fall into
the mid to upper 70s.

Meanwhile along the coast, low risk of rip currents is expected to
persist through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Good confidence in rain chances for the latter part of the work week
remains as the latest models guidance and trends continue to remain
consistent. A favorable pattern for convection to develop is
expected as a mid and upper level trough over Texas is expected to
deepen. Upper level divergence will provide a source of lift that
will enhance deepening atmospheric moisture. Moisture levels are
expected to rise even further. PWAT values are just under 2.5 inches
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday and
remain above 2 inches Tuesday into Friday. WPC has marginal (Level 1
of 4) and slight (level 2 of 4) for Wednesday and Thursday for
excessive rainfall. The currently only the Northern Ranchlands are
in the slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday. QPF values
are in the range of 1 to 3 inches with some locally heavier amounts
possible. With ample amount of moisture in the atmosphere, heavy
thunderstorms are likely with some being able to produce rainfall
rates of 2-3+ inches per hour anywhere across Deep South Texas.

As for temperatures, low temperatures are generally expected to be
in the 70s for the region with a few places getting close to 80. As
for the high temperatures, while starting off in the mid to upper
90s. Highs will cool down as more cloud coverage builds over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Mostly clear skies and light southeast to south winds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. Expect VFR conditions
for the next 24 hours with surface weak high pressure in control.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this morning into the afternoon/evening hours due to the elevated
moisture content in the atmosphere and continued sea breeze
interaction. Any storms that develop over the terminals will have
the chance to briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings to MVFR-IFR
levels. Additionally, winds could become gusty and variable in
and around any convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Now through Monday...Light to moderate south to southeast winds and
generally low seas are expected through Monday due to broad high
pressure across the Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the period, some of these storms could generate
locally enhanced winds and seas.

Monday through Saturday...Generally favorable conditions with a
surface high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected through
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become more
frequent Tuesday through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are
capable of producing locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  80  94  79 /  40  10  30  20
HARLINGEN               95  77  94  77 /  50  10  30  10
MCALLEN                 98  80  97  79 /  30  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  77  97  78 /  20  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  82  89  82 /  30  10  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  92  78 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...63-KC