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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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535 FXUS64 KBRO 181134 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front across the Hill Country will drift southward then stall well north of our region. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across Deep South Texas through Friday. While ample surface moisture and instability may support isolated showers and thunders along the sea breeze this afternoon and Friday afternoon, drier mid level flow will likely limit convection through the period. High temperatures today and Friday are expected to remain in the mid to upper 90s. However, a few locations could reach the triple digits, especially across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria rising to between 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning and again late tonight, dissipating by the mid morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners edges further westward into the weekend as low pressure across the central CONUS deepens and sinks south through Texas into mid next week. This will gradually increase rain chances next week. NBM POPs range from 15 to 20 percent through Sunday, increasing to 20 to 30 percent Monday, near 40 to 50 percent Tuesday, and 40 to 60 percent Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday reach slightly above normal into the upper 90s and low 100s, with more seasonal temperatures next week. Heat Indices may reach 105 to 109 degrees each afternoon, especially Monday through Wednesday as humidity increases, falling shy of any Heat Advisory criteria at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Light and variable winds with mostly high clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Have included a TEMPO at HRL until 13Z for some patchy fog with MVFR visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance of isolated showers/storms, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, light east to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots will prevail later this morning into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Now through Friday...Favorable conditions will prevail through the period with high pressure across the Gulf. Light to moderate southeast winds and low seas are expected along the Lower Texas Coast through Friday. Friday Night through Wednesday...A weak pressure gradient is expected late this week into next week across coastal waters, with light to moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas. The chance of showers and thunderstorms gradually increases next week, with winds and seas higher near any thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 79 96 79 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 76 96 75 / 10 0 20 0 MCALLEN 99 79 100 79 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 77 93 78 / 10 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...63-KC