330
FXUS64 KBRO 190532 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A mild and humid night is expected across Deep South Texas with
temperatures falling into the mid 70s and low 80s. Some patchy fog
may develop across the Northern Ranchlands and portions of the
Lower RGV toward day break, but should quickly dissipate. Surface
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain persistent
low level southeasterly to southerly, resulting in elevated dew
points and high moisture content through the short term period.
Low rain chances (around 20% or less) return tomorrow, mainly
across the Northern Ranchlands, as a shortwave aloft traverses
along the periphery of an upper level trough. Locally heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty winds are the main threats with any activity
that develops during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, high
temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with highs
ranging from the low 90s to around 100 degrees. Friday night will
feature lows once again in the mid 70s and low 80s, with some
patchy fog possible across portions of the region after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Look for patchy fog eastern sections Saturday and Sunday mornings
due to light winds and dew points in at least the mid 70s. Can`t
rule out morning fog beyond Sunday, but by then higher pops will
also creep into the forecast.

The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners will edge farther
west heading into the weekend as a large scale trough across the
central CONUS deepens and sinks south through Texas into mid next
week. Overall, surface high pressure will continue to dominate,
thanks to the Bermuda Ridge/High nosing into the Gulf from the
Atlantic Ocean, but rain chances will also trend up early next
week through the end of the long term. Percentages will be mainly
in the chance category Tuesday through Thursday, but slightly
less overnight, reflecting some diurnal forcing.

Temperatures will be for the most part near to slightly above
normal, in the 90s to near the century mark for highs daily
through the weekend, with mid to upper 70s at night. High temps
will decrease a few degrees by early to mid next week as rain
chances increase, but will remain in the 90s. Heat index values
will range from 103 to 108 degrees through the weekend into early
next week, but will drop a bit as rain chances edge up. Not
anticipating anything other than very fleeting, borderline heat
advisory conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period, with light southeasterly winds. Convection may develop
again Friday afternoon and work from east to west into the early
evening, with tall CB, heavy rainfall, and variable gusty winds.
Confidence is too low to add into this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Light to moderate southeast winds
and low seas will result in favorable marine conditions as high
surface pressure over the Gulf of Mexico prevails. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late
tonight into tomorrow morning, which may result in locally higher
winds and seas.

Saturday through Tuesday night...Light to moderate southeast to
south winds and low to moderate seas will prevail. Periodic
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Though long term marine conditions will reflect the influence of
surface high pressure over the Gulf, mid-level troughing will
support instability and a nudge toward seasonal marine convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  79  95  79 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               96  76  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                100  78 100  79 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  77 100  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  81  89  82 /  10   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  78  92  78 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...56-Hallman