Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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309 FXUS64 KBRO 111730 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The KBRO upper air sounding from Wednesday evening yielded a precipitable water value of 2.03 inches in the atmospheric column. This deeper tropical moisture, combined with daytime heating and weakness at the 500 mb level, will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. An aspect of the convection to watch for will be the possibility of flood advisories or even flash flood warnings, as movement of the convection has been relatively slow over the past couple of days. Indeed, the aforementioned upper air sounding indicated winds of generally 5 to 10 knots from the surface up to around 25k feet. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, below normal values are anticipated due to the expected showers and thunderstorms and associated cloud cover. Calculated heat indices do not suggest the need for a HEAT && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Lingering tropical moisture could support isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday. Beyond that, rain chances remain near zero through the middle of next week as a building upper-level ridge over the southeastern US and drier mid-level flow takes hold. As cloud cover decreases through the period and sustained southeasterly surface flow continues, a gradual warming pattern is expected through the long term period. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Saturday, are expected to climb to the upper 90s to just above 100 by mid week. Heat Advisories could be needed for eastern portions of Deep South Texas by early next week, with greater likelihoods by mid week. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The latest radar imagery depicts increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA across the region this afternoon, including the terminals. Periods of reduced visibility due to locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and occasional lightning will be the main threats through the early evening hours. Convection should wane with the loss of daytime heating and result in rain-free conditions overnight, but additional activity may develop by mid to late morning tomorrow. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions through the forecast period outside of any showers or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today through Friday...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 2 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period with high pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico. Neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed. Friday night through Wednesday...Broad high pressure over the Northern Gulf will support generally favorable marine conditions through the long term period. Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 79 93 79 / 70 20 40 10 HARLINGEN 89 74 91 75 / 70 20 40 10 MCALLEN 92 78 93 79 / 70 40 40 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 77 93 77 / 70 40 40 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 88 82 / 60 20 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 91 79 / 70 20 40 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...22-Garcia