965
FXUS64 KBRO 150542 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1242 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term
forecast period. While expecting mostly rain-free conditions due to
drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The onshore flow
will help bring in some low-level moisture that will help to
increase the humidity. However, the PWATs are expected to drop as
the short term forecast period progress. As stated before, mostly
rain-free does not mean that rogue showers and thunderstorms cannot
develop.

As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow
night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio
Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high
temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s. Heat
indices are also expected to be in the range of 102-105. As such a
Heat Advisory is not expected at this time, but a Special Weather
Statement for the elevated heat indices might be issued later.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Normal Temperatures
- Increasing rain chances Thursday-Weekend

The amplified trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS becomes even
more amplified the latter half of next week as the Western U.S.
500mb ridge builds well north into Canada. This amplification kicks
a strong shortwave south along on the western side of a Midwest mid-
level trough digging the base of the trough to the NW Gulf of Mexico
Friday. A second shortwave amplifies the trough farther southwest
through Texas Sunday. At the surface, a cold front drops into
Central Texas Thursday with latest model suite maintaining some
continuity boundary over Texas Friday and Saturday with a further
nudge southwest through Texas Sunday. Model trends increase rain
chances Thursday-Sunday as low-level moisture, weak forcing and
daytime instability south of the front support rain chances near
climatological normals of 20-30 percent each afternoon.

Model guidance maintains a steady state near normal temperature
range through the next weekend with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory criteria.
Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours,
with light to moderate winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Surface high pressure over the US
southeast will provide favorable marine conditions through Monday
night. With the light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to
moderate seas, there are currently no expected adverse or hazardous
conditions expected.

Tuesday through Sunday...Surface high pressure to remain anchored
over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Sunday. A weak to occasional
moderate pressure gradient supports light to moderate winds and
slight seas. Isolated showers/Thunderstorms Tuesday- Thursday
become scattered Friday-Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  94  80  94 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               76  95  77  94 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 78  97  80  97 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  98  78  96 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  83  89 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  79  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$