Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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506 FXUS61 KBOX 170007 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 807 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues for the region Saturday. A slow moving front will lead to unsettled weather with showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday night. Sunday through Tuesday. A drying trend with seasonable temperatures are expected for the middle of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will track well southeast of New England, but it will bring rough surf and strong rip currents to south-facing ocean beaches this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 8PM Update... Haze from wildfire smoke has resulted in near total obscuration of the sky this evening even after lingering stratus dissipated. While smoke will become less visible after sunset, visibility will fall as fog develops. HRRR smoke suggests near identical conditions are expected tomorrow so took the opportunity to add haze to the weather grids for tomorrow. Estimating that widespread vsbys of 5-6SM will be observed. 300 pm update... Other than a few light showers across the Berkshires, dry weather prevails. Still areas of stratus/low clouds across the east that should clear out just in time for sunset. Given the light flow regime we are in, the airmass isn`t any different than last night, so we should see another round of stratus/fog develop across most of the area before midnight. Could be some areas with visibility dropping below 3/4 mile. Overnight lows should be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 300 pm update... Forecast uncertainty for tomorrow will be how quickly the stratus and fog dissipates. Given another day with light winds, it could very well be until noon/early afternoon before it all dissipates. This in turn could have impacts for how warm it gets. Went with the guidance blend for highs, so most of the region should be into the lower 80s. With light winds, sea breezes will prevail along the coast, keeping temperatures in the 70s. As we go into Saturday night, a slow moving frontal system to our west will start to spread clouds and increasing moisture into our region. We could see a few showers move into far western areas late at night. Not looking for any significant rainfall however. The prime concern will be the arrival of long-period S to SE swells from distant Hurricane Ernesto. We have raised a headline for High Risk for Rip Currents for south facing beaches along coastal RI, Cape and Islands. This is for the entire weekend. We may need to expand that to cover the coast of Cape Ann as well. In addition to the expected stronger rip currents, surf heights will be elevated. Those heading to the beaches this weekend need to heed the advice of local lifeguards and beach patrols. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 300 pm update... Highlights * Late afternoon and evening showers develop Sunday, with a chance for an isolated thunderstorm * Best chance for widespread precipitation comes Monday with a cold front swinging across southern New England * Dry, tranquil, and seasonable conditions develop mid next week Sunday and Monday... Mid level ridging gradually moves east of southern New England during the wee hours of Sunday, though it`s slow movement towards the Atlantic should yield mainly dry conditions for at least the first half of the day. Warm front lifting ahead of approaching trough, pushing into the northeast from the Great Lakes, will likely result in some prefrontal scattered afternoon showers by late Sunday afternoon. Shower chances will be greatest across the terrain/interior of SNE, and a rumble of thunder or two can`t be ruled out either. Will note, however, that the actual warm front will fall short of our region before sunset, with the greatest instability remaining to our southwest across southern NY/NJ/PA, which should mitigate the chance for severe weather. CSU Machine Learning probabilities have actually removed the threat for any damaging wind from our region through 12Z Monday that was present in yesterday`s forecast, though does show both low tornado and wind probabilities to our south and west across PA/NY/NJ. Something that we will need to keep an eye on should the timing of the front change by a few hours. Showers become more numerous overnight Sunday into Monday as trough/cold front are finally able to push into the region. Preceding warm front lifts north into northern New England which will allow PWATs to climb to ~1.50"; while moist, nothing to write home about for mid-August. Anticipate the greatest amount of rain will fall across interior MA and CT where the GEFS/ECMWF/GEM probabilities highlight a 30-40% chance of 1" of rain to fall during the 24 hour period ending Monday night. QPF probabilities fall off considerably the further east you are in our CWA, with the chance for 24 hour QPF to exceed a half inch hovering around 20-40% across eastern MA. Overall, not looking like this will be a significant rain event, and continue to suspect, as the previous forecaster stated, the chance for severe thunderstorms remains low with a lack of shear and significant instability. Tuesday and Beyond... Cold front should be east of the region by late Tuesday, which will result in an early fall airmass filtering into the region; dewpoints are expected to fall back into the 50s by late Tuesday evening. Strong ridging develops across the central CONUS by mid week but the northeast looks to remain on the eastern edge of the ridge, with resulting prolonged NW flow. Thus, expecting a very pleasant, tranquil mid to late week with highs right around average (70s/low 80s), with low rain chances and comfortable humidity. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Updates Overall moderate confidence. The area is stuck in a very weak flow regime, and with no airmass changes expected, the forecast relies on persistence. That is, what happened last night should happen again tonight. Thus the forecast has widespread IFR ceilings developing in the 02-06z timeframe. Guidance also indicates that MVFR visibilities should be fairly widespread. Could drop to IFR in some locations (ORH, the Cape & Islands). Guidance was not showing much fog in northern CT, so went along with that, but it`s possible that forecast does not work out. The low clouds and fog should slowly dissipate tomorrow morning, and in general VFR conditions should be developing after 14z. However, like today, that may end up being later than currently expected. For Saturday night, we may see some additional stratus/fog developing in the east to produce some MVFR conditions. May also have some showers late at night across the far western areas. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Expecting IFR conditions to develop overnight, probably similar in timing to last night. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Should have MVFR ceilings develop late tonight, perhaps IFR. Uncertainty as to the development of any fog, though if there is, believe 3-5SM would be the result. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 300 pm update... Overall high confidence in the forecast. Although winds will be 15kt or less over the weekend, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the elevated wave heights due to the powerful swells coming in from the SE due to Hurricane Ernesto. The swells will also be of very long period (13 to 16 seconds), so this will also result in strong rip currents and high surf developing along south-facing coast lines. This may also result in rough conditions at the entrances to inlets and harbors. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>004- 008>012. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for MAZ022>024. RI...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KS/Nash NEAR TERM...KS/Nash SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...KS/Nash MARINE...KS/Nash