708
FXUS61 KBOX 141020
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
620 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and very pleasant weather continues today. Another round of
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, is expected
Thursday. Dry weather likely returns Friday and may linger into
Saturday, especially across RI and eastern MA. Then a frontal
system may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Tuesday. Probably not a washout, with periods of dry
weather too during this time. Meanwhile, Ernesto will track well
southeast of New England, but it will bring rough surf and
strong rip currents to south-facing ocean beaches of RI and MA
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just a few changes to the overall weather pattern for today.
Surface high pressure moves a little closer to southern New
England, leading to a weaker pressure gradient today. Expecting
seabreezes to develop along both coasts. High temperatures
should still be near normal for mid August.

The other question today will be the potential for afternoon
showers. Still will have to contend with a closed mid level low
over the Maritimes. Southern New England should be on the
periphery of the mid level cold pool, so thinking the greater
risk for these showers will be to our north. That said, there is
at least a slight chance for some showers today, mainly along
and north of the Mass Pike.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
With weak forcing in place, any showers or thunderstorms should
diminish with sunset. The greatest risk for any lingering
rainfall looks to be across northeast MA. At least some clouds
should linger overnight as a cold pool aloft retrogrades closer
to our region. This will become a larger factor in our weather
for Thursday. Risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
higher Thursday, but again should diminish with sunset.

Near normal temperatures expected to persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights

* Dry and seasonably warm on Friday with sea-breezes keeping the
  coastal areas a bit cooler

* Increasing humidity and rain chances this weekend as a broad
  upper- level trough sets up over the northeast

* Unsettled weather carries into early next week before the
  upper- trough axis shifts east of the region by mid-week

Friday

Surface high pressure supports a dry and seasonably warm day on
Friday in southern New England with high temps in the upper 70s
to low 80s. High pressure and weak flow will allow for sea-
breezes to develop keeping the coastal areas a bit cooler than
across the interior.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure shifts east Friday night into Saturday, return
flow from the south will allow for an uptick in moisture with
surface dewpoints climbing to the upper 60s/low 70s and PWATs
approaching 1.5 inches or greater. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level trough will be progressing east from The Great Lakes. A
series of embedded short- waves will introduce some
opportunities for diurnal showers and thunderstorms both
Saturday and Sunday. Latest forecast guidance supports drier
conditions across eastern MA and RI on Saturday with higher rain
chances across western MA and CT. Rain chances increase region
wide on Sunday as a somewhat stronger pulse of energy embedded
in the broad cyclonic flow aloft traverses over the region.
Temperatures over the weekend remain seasonable in the upper 70s
to low 80s, but it will feel quite a bit warmer with the higher
dewpoints supporting higher heat humidity and heat indices.

Early Next Week

Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to pass offshore of southern
New England late Sunday into Monday. There is a strong
agreement among deterministic and ensemble forecast guidance for
this storm to stay well offshore of southern New England thanks
to the upper-level trough that will be slowly progressing
eastward this weekend into early next week. Nonetheless, the
storm will come close enough to produce some high surf and
dangerous rip currents at south facing beaches as early as
Saturday. Please visit nhc.noaa.gov for the latest forecast and
most up to date information on Ernesto.

More scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday as a
surface front associated with upper-level trough over The
Northeast finally pushes through New England. This will bring
dewpoints back down to more comfortable levels as we head into
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

VFR. Light north winds, with seabreezes likely to develop along
the immediate coasts.

Tonight and Thursday...High Confidence.

VFR. Winds light and variable. Seabreezes developing by
Thursday afternoon along both coasts. Risk for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence

KBDL TAF...High Confidence.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High Confidence.

Relatively light winds and seas through Thursday. Visibility
should be quite good as well. Risk for a few showers around Cape
Ann this afternoon and evening, with a greater risk for
nearshores showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM