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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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708 FXUS61 KBOX 141020 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 620 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and very pleasant weather continues today. Another round of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, is expected Thursday. Dry weather likely returns Friday and may linger into Saturday, especially across RI and eastern MA. Then a frontal system may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Probably not a washout, with periods of dry weather too during this time. Meanwhile, Ernesto will track well southeast of New England, but it will bring rough surf and strong rip currents to south-facing ocean beaches of RI and MA this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Just a few changes to the overall weather pattern for today. Surface high pressure moves a little closer to southern New England, leading to a weaker pressure gradient today. Expecting seabreezes to develop along both coasts. High temperatures should still be near normal for mid August. The other question today will be the potential for afternoon showers. Still will have to contend with a closed mid level low over the Maritimes. Southern New England should be on the periphery of the mid level cold pool, so thinking the greater risk for these showers will be to our north. That said, there is at least a slight chance for some showers today, mainly along and north of the Mass Pike. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... With weak forcing in place, any showers or thunderstorms should diminish with sunset. The greatest risk for any lingering rainfall looks to be across northeast MA. At least some clouds should linger overnight as a cold pool aloft retrogrades closer to our region. This will become a larger factor in our weather for Thursday. Risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is higher Thursday, but again should diminish with sunset. Near normal temperatures expected to persist. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights * Dry and seasonably warm on Friday with sea-breezes keeping the coastal areas a bit cooler * Increasing humidity and rain chances this weekend as a broad upper- level trough sets up over the northeast * Unsettled weather carries into early next week before the upper- trough axis shifts east of the region by mid-week Friday Surface high pressure supports a dry and seasonably warm day on Friday in southern New England with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure and weak flow will allow for sea- breezes to develop keeping the coastal areas a bit cooler than across the interior. Saturday and Sunday As high pressure shifts east Friday night into Saturday, return flow from the south will allow for an uptick in moisture with surface dewpoints climbing to the upper 60s/low 70s and PWATs approaching 1.5 inches or greater. Meanwhile, a broad upper- level trough will be progressing east from The Great Lakes. A series of embedded short- waves will introduce some opportunities for diurnal showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Latest forecast guidance supports drier conditions across eastern MA and RI on Saturday with higher rain chances across western MA and CT. Rain chances increase region wide on Sunday as a somewhat stronger pulse of energy embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft traverses over the region. Temperatures over the weekend remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s, but it will feel quite a bit warmer with the higher dewpoints supporting higher heat humidity and heat indices. Early Next Week Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to pass offshore of southern New England late Sunday into Monday. There is a strong agreement among deterministic and ensemble forecast guidance for this storm to stay well offshore of southern New England thanks to the upper-level trough that will be slowly progressing eastward this weekend into early next week. Nonetheless, the storm will come close enough to produce some high surf and dangerous rip currents at south facing beaches as early as Saturday. Please visit nhc.noaa.gov for the latest forecast and most up to date information on Ernesto. More scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday as a surface front associated with upper-level trough over The Northeast finally pushes through New England. This will bring dewpoints back down to more comfortable levels as we head into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High Confidence. VFR. Light north winds, with seabreezes likely to develop along the immediate coasts. Tonight and Thursday...High Confidence. VFR. Winds light and variable. Seabreezes developing by Thursday afternoon along both coasts. Risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions. KBOS TAF...High Confidence KBDL TAF...High Confidence. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High Confidence. Relatively light winds and seas through Thursday. Visibility should be quite good as well. Risk for a few showers around Cape Ann this afternoon and evening, with a greater risk for nearshores showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Belk/RM MARINE...Belk/RM