Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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539 FXUS65 KBOU 082312 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 512 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with continued warming throughout the week. - A heat wave is expected to bring temperatures into the triple digits across the urban corridor and plains Friday through Sunday. Heat related highlights will likely be needed during this stretch. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Sun abounds today in northeast Colorado with just a few shallow cumulus fields stretching across the plains and southern Front Range. Outside of a possible (20% chance) weak shower or two in Park County, dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the day as we warm into the low 80`s. Northwest flow aloft increases slightly tomorrow, with a marginal increase in mid-level moisture as it circles around the NE side of the ridge to our southwest. Even then, PWAT values will be close to average for the date. Pockets of instability of a few hundred J/Kg will be more likely over the high country than the lower elevations, so slight chance to chance (15-35%) of rain seems reasonable for our mountains Tuesday afternoon. Subsident flow and rising heights will lead to continued warming with high temperatures pushing 90F for much of the lower elevations, and 70`s for most mountain communities. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 As the shortwave trough exits the Great Plains, northwest flow decreases aloft. Wednesday, instabilities of MUCAPE values near 400- 600 J/k and lapse rates between 6-7 C/km will likely support high based scattered thunderstorms mainly over areas south of I-70 in the mountains and valleys. Storms should remain sub-severe and produce gusty winds, lightning and small hail. Total QPF fields are light between 0.01-0.15 thus the flood threat for burn scars remains low. By Thursday, precipitation chances are limited but not zero; isolated to widely scattered chances of thunderstorms are possible for the high country through Saturday. In terms of impacts and severe chances, storms are expected to bring gusty winds versus rainfall as DCAPE values approach 1000-1500 J/kg. The main impact in the long-term forecast will be the incoming prolong heat. As the 500mb ridge sits over Colorado Friday through Sunday, 700mb temperatures soar between 19-23C. This pattern will bring drier air and light winds to the forecast area; light winds should keep fire weather conditions low while widespread low relative humidities are expected Friday through Sunday. Ensemble guidance indicates near record highs for majority of the urban corridor and plains. There is high confidence that above normal temperatures will occur for the entire region Friday through Sunday. Heat highlights could be considered for this time period especially due to multiple cities with highs near the low 100s and warm lows near the mid to upper 60s. As the upper level ridge flattens, there is enough mid level moisture wrapped between the next incoming shortwave trough where isolated to scattered chances of storms could return for the high country next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the period with only FEW-SCT clouds above 10,000 ft AGL for the Denver TAF sites. Light and fairly normal diurnal wind patterns expected with speeds 10 kts or less. Could see a little bump in northerly winds after 20Z Tuesday with a few embedded gusts to 15-17 kts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rodriguez LONG TERM...AD AVIATION...Barjenbruch