471
FXUS65 KBOU 090955
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
355 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry with continued warming throughout the week.

- A heat wave is expected to bring temperatures into the triple
  digits across the urban corridor and plains Friday through
  Sunday. Heat related highlights will likely be needed during
  this stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Warming continues today, but there`s a little area of moisture
that will move across our mountains and I-25 corridor during the
day. This should provide a bit more convection in a shallow layer,
with diurnal heating producing showers and weak thunderstorms
during the afternoon. This should still mainly be over the
mountains, with slow steering winds there`s not much chance of
getting the showers onto the plains but there will likely be some
enhanced cloud cover for a while in the late afternoon and
evening. Clearing should progress from north to south during the
late evening hours. Forecast temps are near guidance and look good
with highs around 90 on the plains today.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The theme for the extended forecast will be high and dry across the
forecast area. Guidance continues to agree that the high pressure
system that has been anchored over the west coast will finally make
a push eastward. This will result in an extended period of above
average temperatures for both daily highs and overnight lows.

Thursday morning, northwesterly flow aloft will transition to a
meridional flow. Temperatures will begin their climb Thursday as
afternoon highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday`s forecast low 90s, with portions of the plains
approaching triple digits. Subsidence aloft will aid in keeping
mostly clear skies overhead leading to intense daily heating through
the weekend. Ensembles show 500 mb heights associated with this
impressive ridge to be near 600 dm for the majority of the long term
forecast. With dry conditions expected with this continuous heat,
any storm chances should stick over the mountains as the plains are
expected to stay hot and dry.

While Sunday is looking to be the hottest day of the week with
portions of the plains forecast to reach 101 to 104 degrees, both
Friday and Saturday won`t be much different as they will likely be
just a few degrees cooler. With overnight temperatures expected to
remain in the mid 60s for the I-25 corridor and the majority of the
plains, this extended heat can have negative impacts on health,
especially those sensitive to heat. It is essential to stay hydrated
in these conditions and check on loved ones and pets while these
conditions persist. Highlights will likely be needed beginning
Friday and lasting through the weekend for locations where
temperatures will reach the 100 degree mark and struggle to cool off
at night. Even the higher elevations won`t escape the the impacts of
this heat wave as the 7000` mark looks to be the elevation where the
transition from the 90 degree temperatures to 70/80 degree
temperatures will occur. Overall, this weekend will be HOT across
the forecast area.

Chances begin to increase early next week for returning moisture and
temperatures start to cool down towards normal Monday and Tuesday
as the ridge is expected to shift east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR through Tuesday. Light southwest winds will become
northwest and then north between 15z-18z with speeds of 10-15
knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...Gimmestad