Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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917 FXUS65 KBOU 100714 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 114 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with continued warming throughout the week. - A heat wave is expected Friday through Monday with temperatures reaching 98 to 104 degrees across the urban corridor and plains. Heat related highlights will likely be needed during this stretch. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 It`s a quiet evening across northern and northeastern Colorado, as the last of the showers this afternoon have dissipated. No significant changes were made to the forecast grids. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Radar currently shows scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the mountains, foothills, and southern Lincoln County this afternoon. Marginal instability and mid-level moisture will be sufficient to support continues showers and a few weaker storms through early this evening. An ACARS sounding taken from near Denver displays a clear inverted v profile, indicative of a dry surface layer. This environment may support a stray shower or two making it onto the adjacent plains; however, more likely high- based/virga with a brief gust up to 30 mph. Otherwise the higher chances will be confined to the higher terrain. Wednesday the upper level ridge slowly slides a bit more eastward over the region. 700mb temperatures warm a degree or two supporting highs in the low 90s across the plains and urban corridor. The high country will see highs in the 70s for the foothills/valleys and 50s/60s for the mountains. Similar to Tuesday, marginal instability develops in the high country in the afternoon to support terrain forced showers/storms. Limited moisture will likely keep coverage scattered. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Upper level high over the Great Basin will bring a northerly flow aloft to Colorado for Thursday. Temperatures increase as the high nears Colorado with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s over northeast Colorado. Expect another round of isolated/scattered weak showers and storms over the higher terrain. With northerly flow, these showers/storms will drift southward across the higher terrain and not onto the near plains. Full brunt of the upper level high to be felt Friday through Monday with highs climbing into the 98F to 104F range across the Urban Corridor and eastern plains. The high very slowly moves east across the Central and Southern Rockies this weekend and Monday. Very little change in temperatures is expected during this period. Models are showing 700mb temperatures reaching 19-22C each day Friday through Monday. Sounding climatology shows 21.0C and warmer at 700mb has only been reached 15 times and 22.0C has only been topped 4 times. Thus, we expect some daily high temperature records to fall. Speaking of which, these are the records highs for DEN...101F (Fri), 100F (Sat), 100 (Sun), and 101 (Mon). As far as precipitation goes Friday through Monday, a few weak showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain each day. With precipitable water values staying below normal and CAPE less than 500 J/kg each day, the showers and storms should only produce brief light to moderate rain, but with gusty outflow winds. May see a slight increase in showers and storms Sunday and Monday as moisture slowly increases. Weak steering winds are expected to keeping any convective activity and most of the clouds over the higher terrain. Models show the center of the ridge shifts east of Colorado Tuesday. The southerly flow aloft increases subtropical moisture over the area, which will result in better chances for showers/thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. However, this high has been slow to arrive and it may be slow to leave, which would mean the heat could linger into Tuesday. Will start to trend temperatures slightly cooler and have better chances for showers/storms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR through Wednesday. Light mostly southwest winds will become mostly east to northeast around 16z-18z. With light speeds, there will be some variability in direction. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...Gimmestad