199
FXUS65 KBOI 142024
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
224 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Mid/high level
monsoon moisture currently over our CWA is expected to develop
isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20 to 40 percent areal
coverage) in eastern Oregon and in Idaho south of the Snake
River later this afternoon and evening. Radar is already
showing light pcpn echoes although little if any rain has
reached the ground. More echoes are in nw Nevada closer to a
vort center in western Nevada, so southern Harney and Malheur
Counties should be the areas in our CWA most likely to have
thunderstorms. Outflow winds may affect the Falls and Cow Valley
fires farther north in eastern Oregon. Clouds and smoke have
held temps down today but satellite shows at least partial
clearing approaching from the south, so hot weather may still
occur before sunset. Our Excessive Heat Warning and Heat
Advisory will therefore continue until midnight MDT tonight in
the zones listed below.

.LONG TERM...The monsoon moisture will exit east on Monday and
temps will lower a few degrees as the hot upper high center
moves eastward to the southern Rockies. Unfortunately, latest
models bring a short wave trough from the Pacific toward the
northern California coast where it will pick up a weak low
waiting there. This trough is forecast to move northeast through
OR late Tuesday through midday Wednesday and produce more
thunderstorms in eastern Oregon as it moves by. The situation
looks especially nasty for central and western Oregon but even
Harney and Malheur Counties will probably be affected.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday through Sunday...Wildfire smoke is
causing areas of MVFR and IFR visibility from e-central Oregon
into the w-central Idaho mountains. However, visibility has
improved in the vicinity of KBNO this afternoon and VFR
conditions prevail across the rest of the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon through early
evening across portions of SE Oregon and in Idaho over the
higher terrain south of the Snake River. Expect gusty and
erratic wind gusts of 45 to 55 kt near thunderstorms. Otherwise,
surface winds will be from a generally westerlVFR but continued hazy from area wild fires. Visibility could
drop below 6 miles, but thicker smoke expected to stay northwest of
KBOI. High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Light
winds.y direction at 5-15kt. Winds aloft W to NW 10-20 kt this
afternoon.

KBOI...VFR but continued hazy from area wild fires. Visibility
below 6 miles at times, but thicker smoke expected to stay
northwest of KBOI. High density altitude due to hot daytime
temperatures. Light winds.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ012.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ423-426.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ033.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight ORZ064.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ636-637.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....JB