824
FXUS65 KBOI 170835
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
235 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A shortwave trough
will move northeast from western OR to the ID Panhandle today,
helping to initiate additional showers and thunderstorms. The
best chance for storms will be in southeast OR and from eastern
Owyhee County east into the western Magic Valley. Storms will
continue into the evening as they move east and out of the area
by midnight. Gusts 40-60 mph are possible. Storms are forecast
again Thursday, but only from eastern Owyhee County into the
western Magic Valley where there is expected to be sufficient
moisture. An upper level ridge to our southeast will build back
toward the PacNW through Friday night. As it does, temperatures
will increase, and an Excessive Heat Watch continues from Thu
through the long term period. Smoke will remain over the area.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The large and hot
upper level ridge remains centered over the area through
Tuesday, perhaps shifting slightly east Wednesday. This will
keep our temperatures well above normal, and records will likely
be broken. The chance of showers and thunderstorms remains low,
but not zero. Models continue to indicate the approach of an
upper level trough late in the long term period, but there is
little agreement and confidence on timing/location is low.
Smoke should continue to be an issue through the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke continues over most of the area, especially
near KBNO. Scattered showers thunderstorms with gusty outflow
winds will occur again today, with the best chance near
KBNO/KBKE/KTWF/KJER. High density altitude due to hot daytime
temperatures. Surface winds: this morning - variable 10 kt or
less, except gusts to 50 kt near showers/storms. This afternoon,
winds becoming W to SW 5-15 kt in SE OR, otherwise variable
less than 10 kt. Winds aloft: generally south 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Smoke may reduce visibility below 6 miles,
but this is not likely. High density altitude due to hot
daytime temperatures. Light SE winds through 18Z, then NW 6-12
kt with gusts to 16 kt. Gusts from thunderstorms may travel far
enough to reach here, with gusts to 30 kt possible.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening IDZ012-014-016-030-033.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ426.
OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening ORZ063-064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP