Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
784 FXUS65 KBOI 072026 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 226 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A strong ridge remains off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon, with dry northwest flow over southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. The northwest flow has kept temperatures a few degrees below the forecast this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon, from previous forecasts. Then the upper level ridge begins to move inland on Tuesday with 3-5 degrees of warming. Temperatures continue to warm into Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The most significant heat of the week will occur as the ridge axis passes over the region on Wednesday, with about a 20-30% chance of the Treasure Valley exceeding 110F. This would bring us very close to the all time record high temperature of 111F at the Boise airport. The heat will continue through Friday as the high pressure system slowly moves East, continuing to threaten daily max temperature records. HeatRisk shows widespread major impacts by Wednesday in many areas of the Snake River Valley lasting through Saturday. Though expect some comfort in the mornings as low temperatures are about 35 degrees lower than afternoon highs. By Friday night, deterministic models show good agreement in the beginning of a weak monsoon push, with warm southerly upper level flow allowing for some pulses of moisture into the region. High uncertainty remains in the extent and amount of moisture that will move into the region next weekend. However, there is at least a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday evenings. The moisture and clouds will moderate temps down a few degrees by Sunday, a little relief to the major heat wave though still hot in the afternoons. && .AVIATION...VFR and clear. High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming light and variable by Mon/04z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR and clear. High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Winds NW 08-12 kt with gusts up to 18 kt, becoming light and variable/southeasterly by Mon/06z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Thursday night IDZ012-014-033. Excessive Heat Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday evening IDZ012-014>016-030-033. Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday night IDZ015-016-030. OR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MDT /10 AM PDT/ Tuesday to midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night ORZ063. Excessive Heat Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday evening ORZ061>064. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday ORZ061. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday ORZ062. Excessive Heat Warning from 2 PM Monday to midnight MDT Thursday night ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM