![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
311 FXUS64 KBMX 171129 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 629 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 246 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Index values up to 108 through the afternoon for a large portion of the area. - Heat Index values up to 106 through the afternoon for the southern third of the area on Sunday. - Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds this afternoon/evening and again on Sunday. With the current forecast and consensus of models, we will see an outflow boundary work into the area around 9 to 10 AM. Not much in precipitation will accompany the boundary but included isolated wording to account for any activity across the north and southwest. After 10 AM, the boundary should be between I-20 and I-85. Looks like we will see convection across the central and southern sections late morning/early afternoon. Since the north may not see much in activity, when a second push comes in late afternoon, we will likely see some development that will then push south through the evening hours. This was the original thinking from 2 days ago, so it is a plausible scenario that has some support. Given the possible 2 rounds, we will return to the forecast of severe for all of Central Alabama for the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds will once again be the main concern. While hail cannot be ruled out, damaging winds will be the primary concern for this event. The Heat Advisory has been expanded a touch to the east for today. Showers and storms may put a damper on some areas, but dewpoints will only increase and we cold see a resurgence of the humidity after a storm goes through. Another MCS will move into the area on Sunday. There is some discrepancies on the most likely entrance area for the MCS. A few models drag it through the northern sections and then slide south, while a few take it across the southern portions of the area. If a storm does develop it will be severe with winds and hail the main threats. The best chances for severe will be across the southern half of the area, but cannot be ruled out anywhere. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 206 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2024 A highly amplified pattern for late August will be in place for much of the week as strong subtropical ridging remains centered over the High Plains flanked by troughs along the West Coast and over the eastern CONUS. A long fetch of deep layer northerly flow will allow a modified Canadian air mass to reach the Deep South. The dry air mass will still warm efficiently to allow for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but humidity will be low with cool overnight lows by August standards. In fact, many of the typically cooler northern/northeastern locations should reach the upper 50s by Wednesday morning. The eastern CONUS trough will lift out by the end of the week but will leave behind a weakness/possible weak upper low near the northern Gulf Coast. As high pressure reaches the East Coast and weak wedging develops, low-level flow will become easterly across Central Alabama, continuing to keep the heat at bay. Some Atlantic moisture may move back into portions of the area, but the better moisture looks to remain just south of the forecast area at this time. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2024 As expected the MCS to our northwest has dissipated with an large outflow extending across eastern MS. Over the past hour this outflow has begun to interact with a left over boundary in southwest Alabama. This is helping to fuel some showers/storms in this convergence zone that has set up. The main outflow boundary will be between EET and MGM by 16 to 18z. Looks like we may have one round of showers and storms in the south late morning/early afternoon, then a second round develop across the north after 21z. This round will slide south and could work back into MGM after 3z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A few rounds of showers and storms will move by through Sunday afternoon. RH values will remain above 40 percent through the weekend. A dry air mass returns next week, with no rain expected Monday through Wednesday and RH values from 30 to 40 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 93 66 / 60 30 30 0 Anniston 94 71 92 67 / 60 50 30 10 Birmingham 95 73 94 69 / 60 40 30 10 Tuscaloosa 95 73 94 70 / 60 50 30 10 Calera 94 73 93 70 / 60 50 30 10 Auburn 93 73 94 71 / 50 40 40 20 Montgomery 97 74 97 71 / 50 30 40 30 Troy 92 72 97 70 / 50 30 40 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar- Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa- Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-St. Clair-Talladega- Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...16