244
FXUS64 KBMX 100614
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 740 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024

The overall surface pattern changes rather slowly heading into the
weekend. This change will also give little in the way of sensible
weather impacts. The leftover tropical moisture boundary was
located across eastern Georgia into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A
broad surface high pressure ridge was located from central Canada
into the Southern Plains. The high will slowly sink southeastward
through the weekend. Will keep a small chance of pops far
southeast closer to the moisture gradient and this decreases with
time. Much drier air filters into the state from the northwest.
This will setup a gradient in high and low temperatures through
the period. Highs will range from 87 to 97 while lows will be in
the low to mid 60s to mid 70s. Clear to partly cloudy skies will
dominate in the short term.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024

Broad troughing extends across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions with elongated ridging extended from the Desert Southwest
through the Lower MS River Valley producing height rises across
the Southeast. There is deep north to northwest flow across
Central Alabama with a shortwave trough axis situated over the
AL/GA state line. The airmass will be much drier over the next
couple of days as a sharp theta-e gradient sets up just to our
southeast. Some of that drier air aloft will eventually work its
way down to the surface which will allow for some delayed mixing
this afternoon, mainly across the north, then more widespread
mixing tomorrow afternoon when dewpoints could fall into the 60s
area-wide. This will result in lower humidity, but temperatures
will still be hot with highs in the 90s for most areas except our
far northwestern counties. In fact, a Heat Advisory is still in
effect today across our southeastern counties where dewpoints
remain in the mid 70s, and some scattered showers/storms may
develop in that zone of higher low-level moisture this afternoon.
Despite the heat, the dry northerly flow will result in mid 60s
for lows tonight across the north.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024

Forecast trends are on track in the extended this afternoon.
Continue to expect slightly cooler and drier air this weekend,
mainly across the north. This will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria. Given the dominance of the ridge, the area
remains rain free. With moisture returning by mid week, low rain
chances return along with heat indices creeping up to 105F again.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024

Mostly hot and dry conditions continue to be the trend for the
long term period, as the 500mb ridge remains in control of the
weather pattern across the southern CONUS. Thankfully, we`ll see
some relief in the form of a surface front that will briefly cool
temperatures down Sunday and into Monday morning. Lows Sunday
morning could drop into the lower 60s across the far northern tier
of counties as drier air advects southward, which will be quite
refreshing for this time of the year. A surface ridge of high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will keep northerly flow
going through the day on Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s across the northern half of Central
Alabama, while southeastern counties more removed from the
"cooler" air will still top out in the mid to upper 90s. The
surface front is now forecast to remain off to our south and east,
thus keeping low rain chances out of our area for the time being.

Upper heights begin to increase by Monday and early next week as
the 500mb ridge builds eastward. Highs are expected to top out in
the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday with minimal rain
chances through Tuesday. Guidance trends are still hinting at a
more active northwest flow aloft pattern toward the end of the
period on Wednesday and Thursday. We`ve gone ahead and introduced
some PoPs into the forecast as a result Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon and will continue to monitor guidance trends for further
refinements if necessary.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Ridging will
be dominant through the forecast resulting in minimal cloud cover
and unrestricted vsbys. Winds will be light/variable to near calm
tonight with N-NW winds picking up during the day with mixing at ~
5-8kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will remain in place over Central Alabama for the next
several days, keeping conditions mostly rain free through early
next week. Minimum RH values Saturday through Monday will drop
into the 35 to 45 percent range each afternoon. 20 foot winds
will be from the north to northwest between 5 and 10mph through
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  65  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    92  67  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  91  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  91  67  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      94  72  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  96  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        95  71  96  71 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75/86/Martin
LONG TERM....14/56/GDG
AVIATION...08