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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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244 FXUS64 KBMX 100614 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 114 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 740 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024 The overall surface pattern changes rather slowly heading into the weekend. This change will also give little in the way of sensible weather impacts. The leftover tropical moisture boundary was located across eastern Georgia into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A broad surface high pressure ridge was located from central Canada into the Southern Plains. The high will slowly sink southeastward through the weekend. Will keep a small chance of pops far southeast closer to the moisture gradient and this decreases with time. Much drier air filters into the state from the northwest. This will setup a gradient in high and low temperatures through the period. Highs will range from 87 to 97 while lows will be in the low to mid 60s to mid 70s. Clear to partly cloudy skies will dominate in the short term. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024 Broad troughing extends across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions with elongated ridging extended from the Desert Southwest through the Lower MS River Valley producing height rises across the Southeast. There is deep north to northwest flow across Central Alabama with a shortwave trough axis situated over the AL/GA state line. The airmass will be much drier over the next couple of days as a sharp theta-e gradient sets up just to our southeast. Some of that drier air aloft will eventually work its way down to the surface which will allow for some delayed mixing this afternoon, mainly across the north, then more widespread mixing tomorrow afternoon when dewpoints could fall into the 60s area-wide. This will result in lower humidity, but temperatures will still be hot with highs in the 90s for most areas except our far northwestern counties. In fact, a Heat Advisory is still in effect today across our southeastern counties where dewpoints remain in the mid 70s, and some scattered showers/storms may develop in that zone of higher low-level moisture this afternoon. Despite the heat, the dry northerly flow will result in mid 60s for lows tonight across the north. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024 Forecast trends are on track in the extended this afternoon. Continue to expect slightly cooler and drier air this weekend, mainly across the north. This will keep heat indices below advisory criteria. Given the dominance of the ridge, the area remains rain free. With moisture returning by mid week, low rain chances return along with heat indices creeping up to 105F again. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 211 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2024 Mostly hot and dry conditions continue to be the trend for the long term period, as the 500mb ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the southern CONUS. Thankfully, we`ll see some relief in the form of a surface front that will briefly cool temperatures down Sunday and into Monday morning. Lows Sunday morning could drop into the lower 60s across the far northern tier of counties as drier air advects southward, which will be quite refreshing for this time of the year. A surface ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will keep northerly flow going through the day on Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the northern half of Central Alabama, while southeastern counties more removed from the "cooler" air will still top out in the mid to upper 90s. The surface front is now forecast to remain off to our south and east, thus keeping low rain chances out of our area for the time being. Upper heights begin to increase by Monday and early next week as the 500mb ridge builds eastward. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday with minimal rain chances through Tuesday. Guidance trends are still hinting at a more active northwest flow aloft pattern toward the end of the period on Wednesday and Thursday. We`ve gone ahead and introduced some PoPs into the forecast as a result Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and will continue to monitor guidance trends for further refinements if necessary. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Ridging will be dominant through the forecast resulting in minimal cloud cover and unrestricted vsbys. Winds will be light/variable to near calm tonight with N-NW winds picking up during the day with mixing at ~ 5-8kts. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will remain in place over Central Alabama for the next several days, keeping conditions mostly rain free through early next week. Minimum RH values Saturday through Monday will drop into the 35 to 45 percent range each afternoon. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest between 5 and 10mph through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 92 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 94 72 94 72 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 95 71 96 71 / 10 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75/86/Martin LONG TERM....14/56/GDG AVIATION...08