696
FXUS64 KBMX 110849
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

Today will be similar in some respects to yesterday for high
temperatures (from upper 80s N - mid/upper 90s SE), minimal cloud
cover, north to northwest winds. A surface ridge extends from
Central Canada SEWD into much of ERN Conus. We continue to have a
stationary surface front stretched from the SE LA coast NEWD to
just SE of DHN and NEWD into the Carolinas. Again for today, some
meandering of the boundary may occur during the short term, but it
should remain S of C AL. The main difference for today from
yesterday will be that of lower dew points that have entered into
C AL and will continue to filter SWD today into tonight. It will
still be hot. This is Alabama in August, but conditions will be
less humid for the short term.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

Height rises will take place on Tuesday as a deep-layer ridge
shifts eastward from Texas. The highest temperatures during the
long term period are expected to occur on Tuesday afternoon with
continental flow from the west-northwest. Readings in the mid to
upper 90s will be common across the forecast area.

Around the periphery of the 500 mb ridge, MCS activity appears
likely upstream across Missouri Tuesday night. With the center of
the ridge still to our west and a surge of deep-layer moisture
across Alabama, the upstream convection could reach our area at
some point on Wednesday. Accordingly, PoPs were increased to 30
percent beginning Wednesday morning. A similar 500 mb pattern is
expected for Thursday through Saturday with a tendency for the
ridge to retreat westward. This could result in an upward trend in
rain chances due to additional MCS activity.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as we remain
dominated by ridging. Minimal clouds and unrestricted vsbys will
be noted. Winds will be generally light/variable to near calm for
the remainder of the overnight hours as well. N-NW winds will
pick up during the day with mixing at ~ 5-8kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central
Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35
to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest
between 5 and 10 mph.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  64  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    91  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      94  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  94  69  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        94  68  95  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08