019
FXUS64 KBMX 120849
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

Today will be similar in some respects to yesterday for high
temperatures, but mainly a degree or so warmer. We should keep the
lower dew points around during the short term with NRLY low level
flow remaining in place. A surface ridge extends from Central
Canada into the Northern Plain states and SEWD into much of ERN
Conus. The stationary front that we have been talking about the
last few days remains to our S along the Gulf Coast, and it is
expected to remain generally in this area through the short term.
We could see some periodic high clouds at times as the flat upper
ridge across the SRN US transitions to a weak NW flow into the SE
US. This will result as an upper low over Quebec digs and treks
across New England through the short term. Look for only minor
differences for Tuesday from today as dew points and temperatures
slowly moderate and creep back up, but we still remain rain free
through the daytime on Tuesday.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

A shortwave associated with convection will move southeastward
Tuesday night, but the signal for MCS progression has waned. This
is in part due to a weakening trend in moisture advection from
the west ahead of this activity. However, a remnant outflow
boundary could move in from the north Wednesday morning and
afternoon with some opportunity to generate isolated showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms. Mid-level cloudcover and a slightly
cooler airmass behind the boundary may keep temperatures depressed
by a few degrees across our northern half.

There is good model agreement for Thursday as a strong ridge axis
moves in from the west. Anticyclonic curvature of flow at 500 mb
is suggestive of subsidence, and only very isolated convection
appears possible Thursday afternoon. Models begin to disagree on
Friday with the evolution of a trough to north and northwest. The
GFS is quite aggressive with height falls Friday afternoon and
over the weekend while the ECMWF is more gradual. Either way, rain
chances should increase for Friday and/or Saturday in association
with a cold front. Timing of potentially organized convection
remains unclear. If the front sweeps through forcefully as shown
by the GFS, a cooler and drier airmass would move into the region
on Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as we continue
with surface ridging. Periodic mid/high fair weather clouds and
unrestricted vsbys are expected. Winds will be generally light/
variable to near calm for the remainder of the overnight hours as
well. NW winds will pick up during the day with mixing at ~ 5-8kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central
Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35
to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest
between 5 and 10 mph. A slow increase in moisture and rain
chances will begin on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    91  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  91  70  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  92  70  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      91  70  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      93  72  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  95  72  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08