464
FXUS64 KBMX 100516
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

A surface boundary is moving through C AL in the wake of the
remnants of Beryl. A last pencil thin broken line of light showers
are moving EWD across the area ahead of it. I am keeping in some
lower pops tonight to account for only this isolated activity.
Otherwise, some much appreciated lower dew points along with a
wind shift is occurring behind the boundary. This will allow for
some more bearable overnight temperatures. Although it is still
July and hot, the entry of the drier air will allow us to stay
below heat advisory criteria for Wed.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move to the northeast through
today, with a front moving west to east through the area tonight and
Wednesday morning. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the area this afternoon and early evening.
Instabilities will be hovering around 2000 J/kg this afternoon,
with weak shear. As the low pressure system passes to the north of
the state this evening, shear increases and 0-1 km shear will be
20-30 kts. PW values will be max for this time of year thanks to
the strong southwesterly prevailing mid level winds. Any activity
is capable of producing high rainfall rates and gusting winds.
Storms should be moving fairly quickly due to the stronger mid
level winds.

Winds at the surface will increase through the day, with gusts up to
20-25 mph possible in the western counties. Overnight, the activity
should weaken and become more isolated, decreasing from west to
east. By Wednesday morning, northwesterly flow will move over the
state with drier air moving into the area. Models are trying to hold
on to a few areas of showers in the far southeast in the afternoon,
but with so much dry air in place, will only keep a chance in for
now. Temperatures will be cooler across the area through the
afternoon with so much scattered convection. Highs today will be
in the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s
while highs Wednesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. With
so much dry air filtering into the area, heat indices will finally
be in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

Long term forecast is on track today, with only minor changes to
rain chances through the end of the week. Expecting less rain
coverage, compared to the last few days, ridging settles over the
area. With slightly lower dewpoints, we should be able to get
through the work week with no heat advisories. Rain chances creep
backup for the end of the forecast period as moisture increases
ahead of another weak trough/frontal system.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

Mid- to upper-level troughing will remain positioned near the Great
Lakes Thursday, stretching an axis southwestward into the Southern
Plains. Meanwhile, low-level ridging will already be in a
strengthening phase across the Southeast, with an subsequent
broadening of the ridge aloft. Thus, the period will generally
feature a warming temperature trend while moisture profiles remain
insufficient for meaningful rain chances - outside of isolated
diurnal convection across our southern forecast zones. Afternoon
highs will reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend as the deep-layer
ridge centers across the northern Gulf with 500 mb heights ~596
decameters. By early next week, dewpoints & PWs increase enough to
foster more scattered afternoon convection, though overall rain
chances/QPF will not be enough to combat these above-average
temperatures. Unfortunately, this will likely worsen ongoing local
drought conditions.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

A surface front continues to move east across the area with the
thickest and lowest clouds along and ahead of the boundary. Expect
a few showers along the front overnight as it continues to
advance east followed by improving conditions behind it with
gradual decreasing cloud thickness and higher bases. Breezy low-
level winds from 7-14 kts on average can be expected near the
boundary as it crosses the area. Expect VFR conditions areawide on
Thursday with dry conditions and lighter northwest surface winds.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN due to missing ceilings.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air arrives Wednesday, with most of the area remaining rain
free through the end of the week. Wednesday, minimum RH values
will be in the 40 to 55 percent range with northwest 20ft winds at
5-8mph. For Thursday and Friday, northwest 20ft winds decrease to
less than 5mph with minimum RH values in the 30 to 45 percent
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  66  92  67 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    88  68  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  89  69  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  90  69  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Calera      90  70  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      89  71  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  91  71  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        91  71  92  70 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05