004
FXUS64 KBMX 120559
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

A sunny sky, warm temperatures, and lower humidity values will be
the theme through the short term period as high pressure maintains
its grasp across the region with zonal flow aloft, and north to
northwesterly flow in the low-levels. Conditions will be similar to
yesterday except everyone gets to enjoy dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s due to the dry air over the state. There is deeper moisture
to our west over the Central Plains, but it won`t arrive until later
in the week, so we`ll take this airmass while we have it. Another
pleasant night is expected with increasing high clouds and lows in
the 60s for most of the area.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

Forecast remains on track with the extended. Changes were only
minor in regards to temperatures and rain chances each day.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024

Height rises will take place on Tuesday as a deep-layer ridge
shifts eastward from Texas. The highest temperatures during the
long term period are expected to occur on Tuesday afternoon with
continental flow from the west-northwest. Readings in the mid to
upper 90s will be common across the forecast area.

Around the periphery of the 500 mb ridge, MCS activity appears
likely upstream across Missouri Tuesday night. With the center of
the ridge still to our west and a surge of deep-layer moisture
across Alabama, the upstream convection could reach our area at
some point on Wednesday. Accordingly, PoPs were increased to 30
percent beginning Wednesday morning. A similar 500 mb pattern is
expected for Thursday through Saturday with a tendency for the
ridge to retreat westward. This could result in an upward trend in
rain chances due to additional MCS activity.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as we continue
with surface ridging. Periodic mid/high fair weather clouds and
unrestricted vsbys are expected. Winds will be generally light/
variable to near calm for the remainder of the overnight hours as
well. NW winds will pick up during the day with mixing at ~ 5-8kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central
Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35
to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest
between 5 and 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    91  68  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  91  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  92  71  96  74 /  10   0   0  10
Calera      91  71  94  74 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      94  72  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  96  73  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        96  71  97  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....16/87/Grantham
AVIATION...08