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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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004 FXUS64 KBMX 120559 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024 A sunny sky, warm temperatures, and lower humidity values will be the theme through the short term period as high pressure maintains its grasp across the region with zonal flow aloft, and north to northwesterly flow in the low-levels. Conditions will be similar to yesterday except everyone gets to enjoy dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s due to the dry air over the state. There is deeper moisture to our west over the Central Plains, but it won`t arrive until later in the week, so we`ll take this airmass while we have it. Another pleasant night is expected with increasing high clouds and lows in the 60s for most of the area. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024 Forecast remains on track with the extended. Changes were only minor in regards to temperatures and rain chances each day. 16 Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2024 Height rises will take place on Tuesday as a deep-layer ridge shifts eastward from Texas. The highest temperatures during the long term period are expected to occur on Tuesday afternoon with continental flow from the west-northwest. Readings in the mid to upper 90s will be common across the forecast area. Around the periphery of the 500 mb ridge, MCS activity appears likely upstream across Missouri Tuesday night. With the center of the ridge still to our west and a surge of deep-layer moisture across Alabama, the upstream convection could reach our area at some point on Wednesday. Accordingly, PoPs were increased to 30 percent beginning Wednesday morning. A similar 500 mb pattern is expected for Thursday through Saturday with a tendency for the ridge to retreat westward. This could result in an upward trend in rain chances due to additional MCS activity. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as we continue with surface ridging. Periodic mid/high fair weather clouds and unrestricted vsbys are expected. Winds will be generally light/ variable to near calm for the remainder of the overnight hours as well. NW winds will pick up during the day with mixing at ~ 5-8kts. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35 to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest between 5 and 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 91 70 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 92 71 96 74 / 10 0 0 10 Calera 91 71 94 74 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 94 72 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 96 73 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 96 71 97 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....16/87/Grantham AVIATION...08