939
FXUS64 KBMX 121750
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

This afternoon.

Strong mid-level ridging was centered over much of New Mexico,
extending east to over much of Northern Texas. A positive-tilted
trough extended from over Southeast Canada that extended southwest
to over portions of the Mid Atlantic States. A shortwave was
embedded in the northwest flow over the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley region while longwave ridging was over much of the
Intermountain West. Expansive surface high pressure extended from
South-Central Canada southeast across much of the Midwest and into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions. A stationary front
extended from the Central Plains southeast to Southern Louisiana
where it stretched further east, paralleling the Alabama and
Northwest Florida Gulf Coast Region.

A northwest flow pattern is becoming better established over the
area today with the only impact being some mid to high clouds
being observed across portions of the western and northern
counties early this afternoon. Expect partly cloudy skies
northwest while mostly sunny skies will prevail southeast. Winds
will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures today
will range from around 90 far northwest and in the higher
elevations east to readings in the mid 90s south near and south of
the U.S. Highway 80 corridor.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will remain to our west overnight, extending
from over North-Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma, potentially
extending southeast to over portions of Arkansas and Louisiana as
depicted by most global and regional guidance members with the
outliers depicting a weakened ridge over North Texas. Will
discount the weaker scenario for this forecast. The longwave
trough becomes more neutral in tilt as it moves offshore of the
New England Coast overnight with strong multi-model agreement.
Another shortwave is depicted by all models moving southeast over
the Mid-Mississippi River and Western Ohio River Valley Regions. A
current disturbance over the Arkansas Ozarks is expected to move
southeast to over West-Central Mississippi overnight. Sprawling
surface high pressure will extend from over the Northern Plains
eastward into the Western Mid-Atlantic Region and south into the
Tennessee Valley. Surface high pressure will strengthen over much
of the Florida Peninsula and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in
the coastal surface front lifting northward as a warm front
overnight, but remaining to the south of our forecast area.

Expect skies to range from mostly clear east and southeast to
partly cloudy west and northwest. Dry conditions will persist with
surface winds from the north from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will
range from the upper 60s northeast to the low 70s southwest.

Tuesday.

Ridging will remain centered to our west on Tuesday, but the
available modeling generally is split on whether the ridging will
be more consolidated over the ArkLaTex and North Texas region or
if it will extend from this region more southeast to over much of
the Northern Gulf and over parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface
high pressure will remain firmly entrenched to our north,
extending from just northwest of Lake Superior southeast across
Michigan and further southeast to across the Mid-Atlantic States.
A weak surface boundary will remain just to our south, extending
from the Central Plains southeast into Southern Georgia.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast across much of the area during
the day on Tuesday with a low chance for a few showers and perhaps
a storm or two across the far southwest during the afternoon
hours. Otherwise, dry conditions look to persist across much of
the area. Winds will be more form the north at 5-10 mph. High
temperatures will range from low 90s far north and northeast to
the upper 90s south and west.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

A shortwave associated with convection will move southeastward
Tuesday night, but the signal for MCS progression has waned. This
is in part due to a weakening trend in moisture advection from
the west ahead of this activity. However, a remnant outflow
boundary could move in from the north Wednesday morning and
afternoon with some opportunity to generate isolated showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms. Mid-level cloudcover and a slightly
cooler airmass behind the boundary may keep temperatures depressed
by a few degrees across our northern half.

There is good model agreement for Thursday as a strong ridge axis
moves in from the west. Anticyclonic curvature of flow at 500 mb
is suggestive of subsidence, and only very isolated convection
appears possible Thursday afternoon. Models begin to disagree on
Friday with the evolution of a trough to north and northwest. The
GFS is quite aggressive with height falls Friday afternoon and
over the weekend while the ECMWF is more gradual. Either way, rain
chances should increase for Friday and/or Saturday in association
with a cold front. Timing of potentially organized convection
remains unclear. If the front sweeps through forcefully as shown
by the GFS, a cooler and drier airmass would move into the region
on Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A northwest flow
pattern aloft will become more established over the area this
week. As a result, expect high to mid level clouds to approach
from the northwest today, scattering out as it encounters residual
drier air over the area. Low-level winds will be from the
northwest generally from 4-8 kts today. Skies will range from SCT
northwest to FEW southeast with regard to mid and high clouds
overnight with low-level winds more from the north at 2-4 kts.
Expect scattered mid and upper level clouds on Tuesday with a few
showers and storms possible across portions of the south and west
during mid to late afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will
persist across much of the area. Low-level winds will be from the
northwest to north at 4-8 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central
Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35
to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest
between 5 and 10 mph. A slow increase in moisture and rain
chances will begin on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  92  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    68  93  69  90 /   0   0   0  20
Birmingham  71  94  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Tuscaloosa  72  96  72  92 /   0  10   0  20
Calera      70  93  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Auburn      72  94  73  93 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  72  97  73  97 /   0  10   0  20
Troy        72  96  72  96 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05