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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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939 FXUS64 KBMX 121750 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2024 This afternoon. Strong mid-level ridging was centered over much of New Mexico, extending east to over much of Northern Texas. A positive-tilted trough extended from over Southeast Canada that extended southwest to over portions of the Mid Atlantic States. A shortwave was embedded in the northwest flow over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region while longwave ridging was over much of the Intermountain West. Expansive surface high pressure extended from South-Central Canada southeast across much of the Midwest and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions. A stationary front extended from the Central Plains southeast to Southern Louisiana where it stretched further east, paralleling the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf Coast Region. A northwest flow pattern is becoming better established over the area today with the only impact being some mid to high clouds being observed across portions of the western and northern counties early this afternoon. Expect partly cloudy skies northwest while mostly sunny skies will prevail southeast. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures today will range from around 90 far northwest and in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 90s south near and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor. Tonight. Mid-level ridging will remain to our west overnight, extending from over North-Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma, potentially extending southeast to over portions of Arkansas and Louisiana as depicted by most global and regional guidance members with the outliers depicting a weakened ridge over North Texas. Will discount the weaker scenario for this forecast. The longwave trough becomes more neutral in tilt as it moves offshore of the New England Coast overnight with strong multi-model agreement. Another shortwave is depicted by all models moving southeast over the Mid-Mississippi River and Western Ohio River Valley Regions. A current disturbance over the Arkansas Ozarks is expected to move southeast to over West-Central Mississippi overnight. Sprawling surface high pressure will extend from over the Northern Plains eastward into the Western Mid-Atlantic Region and south into the Tennessee Valley. Surface high pressure will strengthen over much of the Florida Peninsula and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in the coastal surface front lifting northward as a warm front overnight, but remaining to the south of our forecast area. Expect skies to range from mostly clear east and southeast to partly cloudy west and northwest. Dry conditions will persist with surface winds from the north from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s northeast to the low 70s southwest. Tuesday. Ridging will remain centered to our west on Tuesday, but the available modeling generally is split on whether the ridging will be more consolidated over the ArkLaTex and North Texas region or if it will extend from this region more southeast to over much of the Northern Gulf and over parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure will remain firmly entrenched to our north, extending from just northwest of Lake Superior southeast across Michigan and further southeast to across the Mid-Atlantic States. A weak surface boundary will remain just to our south, extending from the Central Plains southeast into Southern Georgia. Partly cloudy skies are forecast across much of the area during the day on Tuesday with a low chance for a few showers and perhaps a storm or two across the far southwest during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry conditions look to persist across much of the area. Winds will be more form the north at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from low 90s far north and northeast to the upper 90s south and west. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024 A shortwave associated with convection will move southeastward Tuesday night, but the signal for MCS progression has waned. This is in part due to a weakening trend in moisture advection from the west ahead of this activity. However, a remnant outflow boundary could move in from the north Wednesday morning and afternoon with some opportunity to generate isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Mid-level cloudcover and a slightly cooler airmass behind the boundary may keep temperatures depressed by a few degrees across our northern half. There is good model agreement for Thursday as a strong ridge axis moves in from the west. Anticyclonic curvature of flow at 500 mb is suggestive of subsidence, and only very isolated convection appears possible Thursday afternoon. Models begin to disagree on Friday with the evolution of a trough to north and northwest. The GFS is quite aggressive with height falls Friday afternoon and over the weekend while the ECMWF is more gradual. Either way, rain chances should increase for Friday and/or Saturday in association with a cold front. Timing of potentially organized convection remains unclear. If the front sweeps through forcefully as shown by the GFS, a cooler and drier airmass would move into the region on Sunday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A northwest flow pattern aloft will become more established over the area this week. As a result, expect high to mid level clouds to approach from the northwest today, scattering out as it encounters residual drier air over the area. Low-level winds will be from the northwest generally from 4-8 kts today. Skies will range from SCT northwest to FEW southeast with regard to mid and high clouds overnight with low-level winds more from the north at 2-4 kts. Expect scattered mid and upper level clouds on Tuesday with a few showers and storms possible across portions of the south and west during mid to late afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will persist across much of the area. Low-level winds will be from the northwest to north at 4-8 kts. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over Central Alabama through Tuesday with afternoon RH values ranging from 35 to 45 percent. 20 foot winds will be from the north to northwest between 5 and 10 mph. A slow increase in moisture and rain chances will begin on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 68 93 69 90 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 71 94 71 91 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 72 96 72 92 / 0 10 0 20 Calera 70 93 71 91 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 72 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 20 Troy 72 96 72 96 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05