976
FXUS64 KBMX 131657
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2024

Today we will see temperatures and dew points slowly begin to
creep back upward. We will still see some dew points in the 60s,
but maybe a tad higher in spots. While we still have surface
ridging in place over ERN Conus, our airmass will begin to
moderate through the short term as the overall ridge slowly
weakens. However, we should see one more rain free day for C AL
today. Our upper flow will change today as the flatter ridging
across the SRN US of late should get pinched between two troughs,
one on each coast. This will set up NW flow with a ripple expected
to propagate through the flow on Wednesday. While our moisture
has not fully recovered, we could have enough overall moisture to
squeeze out some isolated showers/tstorms assisted by daytime
heating.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2024

A 500 mb ridge will shift eastward over Alabama on Thursday, and
anticyclonic flow suggests convection should be limited by
subsidence and less than ideal moisture quality. Slight chance
PoPs will be maintained in case convection is able to develop
upstream within the northwesterly flow pattern. The ridge may
start to relent on Friday as deep-layer flow transitions from
anticyclonic to neutral or cyclonic. If this occurs in conjunction
with weak height falls, thunderstorms could become quite numerous
Friday afternoon. Continued height falls are expected through the
weekend, potentially leading to one or two MCS events between
Saturday and Monday. Timing and location of this potential
activity remains unclear due to the low-predictability nature of
northwesterly flow.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through early Wednesday across the
entire area. Scattered cumulus is expected across much of the area
this afternoon with dry conditions persisting over much of the
area. Low-level winds will be from the northwest to north at 4-8
kts. Skies will range from scattered north and west to few south
and east overnight with bases remaining in the high to mid levels.
Low-level winds will be light from the north to northeast at 3-6
kts. Increasing clouds from the northwest are forecast through the
day Wednesday with chances for isolated showers and a few storms
west and northwest of the northwest terminal locations through the
end of this cycle. VFR conditions will persist further east and
southeast through later in the day on Tuesday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place over today with
afternoon RH values ranging from 35 to 45 percent. A slow
increase in moisture will begin on Wednesday, with minimum RH
values above 40 percent areawide by Thursday. 20 foot winds will
be from the northwest at 5-10 mph today, before shifting to the
north on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  67  92  70 /   0   0  20   0
Anniston    93  68  93  71 /   0   0  20   0
Birmingham  94  71  92  73 /   0   0  20   0
Tuscaloosa  96  72  95  73 /   0   0  30  10
Calera      94  69  93  73 /   0   0  20   0
Auburn      94  71  94  72 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  97  71  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
Troy        96  71  96  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05