Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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156 FXUS64 KBMX 142336 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024 High pressure will keep northerly flow over the state. Instabilities will be weak, though moisture will increase with PW values near the 90th percentile in the southwestern half of the state through the short term. Scattered showers will develop and move through the area through the afternoon and early evening, weakening after sunset. There could be a few isolated thunderstorms, though instability looks too low for much coverage. Patchy fog development is possible in a few locations in the early morning, with diurnally driven convection expected again beginning in the late morning Thursday. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s today across much of the west and south, with values in the triple digits across the southwest Thursday afternoon. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024 Models continue to show a shift in pattern for the end of the week as northwesterly flow sets up across the area, with increased rain chances expected Friday and Saturday. With the increased moisture, heat indices will be above 105F for portions of the area Friday and Saturday. Forecast is on track with only slight changes to pops and temps needed. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2024 An expansive 500 mb ridge will be present over much of the southern CONUS on Friday with our area located at the eastern edge of a ridge axis. The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF which shows slower height falls from an upstream shortwave. Therefore, the potential for an MCS appears to shifting from Friday to Saturday. Still, isolated to scattered convection appears possible mainly in our northern and western counties Friday afternoon and evening. As an organized shortwave trough axis swings across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, a cold front should provide a focus for organized convection developing immediately upstream from our forecast area on Saturday. The ECMWF shows the potential for storms to sweep across Alabama during the afternoon, and the potential for damaging winds will be monitored. With the trend toward a moisture-sweeping front, Sunday appears cooler and much less humid as a drier airmass arrives. For Monday and Tuesday, dry weather is expected to continue as upper- level pattern becomes unusually amplified. Northerly flow should continue to reinforce the drier airmass across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only mid-level clouds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will remain calm or variable overnight, becoming southerly to southeasterly during the day on Thursday. No mention of SHRA/TSRA has been added Thursday afternoon with low confidence of development affecting terminal locations. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... With moisture increasing, low rain chances will return for most of the area Thursday. For Thursday, minimum RH values will be above 40 percent, with light easterly to southeasterly 20 foot winds. Greater rain chances are expected Friday afternoon and/or Saturday, with minimum RH values remaining above critical thresholds. Southerly 20ft winds on Friday will become westerly Saturday, but remain below 8mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 71 94 / 10 20 0 30 Anniston 72 89 71 92 / 10 20 0 20 Birmingham 74 92 74 94 / 10 20 0 40 Tuscaloosa 74 95 74 94 / 10 20 0 40 Calera 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 0 30 Auburn 73 89 71 92 / 10 10 0 10 Montgomery 75 93 74 95 / 10 20 0 20 Troy 73 91 72 93 / 10 20 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...56/GDG