711
FXUS64 KBMX 072315
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
615 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025

A trough will be in place across central Alabama, more in line
with the typical inverted trough over the region. With this
position we will see more southerly flow, thus an increase to
isolated to scattered afternoon, heat of the day activity.
Remember though even with the increase in rain chances, it is
summer, and we will be in the hit or miss environment. Highs will
be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to middle 70s.

On Tuesday the center of the high pressure will be over the
western Carolinas giving us more of an easterly/southeasterly
flow. At the same time a front will begin to approach for the
northwest, but should still remain well north of the area. Between
the trough and Any organized activity to our north should remain
north of the area.

While elevated into the upper 90s and low 100s, heat indices
overall should remain below the 105 criteria for a heat advisory
through Tuesday. An isolated area may see a brief moment of 105
but should not last more than 1 hour.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025

Same scenario on Wednesday with the best chances in the north as
the front barely moves any. At this time it appears to mainly be
diurnally driven activity and still generally a hit and miss
coverage, just high probabilities. The better rain chances appear
still to be Thursday and Friday as an upper level shortwave is
forecast to move across the Southeast in an increasingly active
northwest upper flow regime. A second wave is forecast for
Saturday as well.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Similar to the last few nights, have included TEMPO groups for
MVFR vis at TCL/MGM. MGM will have better chances for fog as a few
showers are ongoing near the terminal at this time. Current shower
activity will wane shortly as we lose daytime heating. Opted to
include VCSH at MGM through 01Z. Winds remain light through the
TAF cycle. Isolated convection expected again Tuesday afternoon.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms can be expected
through Tuesday, with rain chances increasing even more through
the remainder of the week. RH levels will remain well above
critical thresholds, with generally light winds. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  94  71  92 /  20  40  20  70
Anniston    72  92  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
Birmingham  73  93  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
Tuscaloosa  74  93  73  92 /  20  40  20  60
Calera      73  92  73  91 /  20  40  20  60
Auburn      73  92  73  91 /  20  30  10  50
Montgomery  73  94  73  93 /  20  30  10  50
Troy        72  92  72  93 /  20  40  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo