384
FXUS64 KBMX 141952
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
252 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

High pressure will keep northerly flow over the state.
Instabilities will be weak, though moisture will increase with PW
values near the 90th percentile in the southwestern half of the
state through the short term. Scattered showers will develop and
move through the area through the afternoon and early evening,
weakening after sunset. There could be a few isolated
thunderstorms, though instability looks too low for much coverage.
Patchy fog development is possible in a few locations in the
early morning, with diurnally driven convection expected again
beginning in the late morning Thursday.

Heat indices will be in the upper 90s today across much of the
west and south, with values in the triple digits across the
southwest Thursday afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

Models continue to show a shift in pattern for the end of the week
as northwesterly flow sets up across the area, with increased rain
chances expected Friday and Saturday. With the increased moisture,
heat indices will be above 105F for portions of the area Friday
and Saturday. Forecast is on track with only slight changes to
pops and temps needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

An expansive 500 mb ridge will be present over much of the
southern CONUS on Friday with our area located at the eastern
edge of a ridge axis. The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF which
shows slower height falls from an upstream shortwave. Therefore,
the potential for an MCS appears to shifting from Friday to
Saturday. Still, isolated to scattered convection appears possible
mainly in our northern and western counties Friday afternoon and
evening. As an organized shortwave trough axis swings across the
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, a cold front should provide a
focus for organized convection developing immediately upstream
from our forecast area on Saturday. The ECMWF shows the potential
for storms to sweep across Alabama during the afternoon, and the
potential for damaging winds will be monitored. With the trend
toward a moisture-sweeping front, Sunday appears cooler and much
less humid as a drier airmass arrives. For Monday and Tuesday, dry
weather is expected to continue as upper- level pattern becomes
unusually amplified. Northerly flow should continue to reinforce
the drier airmass across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

Scattered showers will move through the area this afternoon and
evening, weakening after sunset. Though there isn`t a lot of
instability, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Confidence of timing this activity at any TAF site was
too low at this time, so included VCSH in each TAF for now.
Diurnally driven convection is possible in the late morning and
early afternoon on Thursday.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With moisture increasing, low rain chances will return for
most of the area Thursday. For Thursday, minimum RH values will
be above 40 percent, with light easterly to southeasterly 20 foot
winds. Greater rain chances are expected Friday afternoon and/or
Saturday, with minimum RH values remaining above critical
thresholds. Southerly 20ft winds on Friday will become westerly
Saturday, but remain below 8mph.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  90  71  94 /  10  20   0  30
Anniston    72  88  71  92 /  10  20   0  20
Birmingham  74  92  74  94 /  10  20   0  40
Tuscaloosa  74  96  74  94 /  10  20   0  40
Calera      73  91  74  92 /  10  20   0  30
Auburn      72  87  71  92 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  74  93  74  95 /  10  20   0  20
Troy        73  91  72  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24