866
FXUS64 KBMX 150247
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
947 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

Looking out the window this evening, it`s fairly quiet aside from
a few rogue showers that were triggered by outflow boundary
interactions along the I-85 corridor. Those should finally
dissipate over the next few hours giving way to a clear radar
overnight. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds should be present
during the overnight hours, but no low clouds or fog development
is currently forecast. A surface trough is poised to move westward
into Central Alabama tonight through the day on Thursday, with
easterly surface flow and a surface ridge of high pressure
centered over the Eastern Seaboard. The 500mb ridge remains just
off to the west over the ArkLaMiss, with northerly flow aloft
continuing over the region. Low temperatures will stay fairly
muggy, dropping down into the low and mid 70s overnight.

Looking forward into the day on Thursday, easterly to
southeasterly surface flow will continue across the CWA, with a
weak surface ridge just south of the coast of Louisiana. A low-
level convergence zone appears to be setting up across
Mississippi and perhaps southwestern Alabama during the afternoon.
At least scattered showers and storms should develop in those
areas, with isolated convection elsewhere in the CWA. Mid 90s are
likely in the far western counties, while upper 80s can be
expected in the east thanks to the cooler easterly flow.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

Models continue to show a shift in pattern for the end of the week
as northwesterly flow sets up across the area, with increased rain
chances expected Friday and Saturday. With the increased moisture,
heat indices will be above 105F for portions of the area Friday
and Saturday. Forecast is on track with only slight changes to
pops and temps needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

An expansive 500 mb ridge will be present over much of the
southern CONUS on Friday with our area located at the eastern
edge of a ridge axis. The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF which
shows slower height falls from an upstream shortwave. Therefore,
the potential for an MCS appears to shifting from Friday to
Saturday. Still, isolated to scattered convection appears possible
mainly in our northern and western counties Friday afternoon and
evening. As an organized shortwave trough axis swings across the
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, a cold front should provide a
focus for organized convection developing immediately upstream
from our forecast area on Saturday. The ECMWF shows the potential
for storms to sweep across Alabama during the afternoon, and the
potential for damaging winds will be monitored. With the trend
toward a moisture-sweeping front, Sunday appears cooler and much
less humid as a drier airmass arrives. For Monday and Tuesday, dry
weather is expected to continue as upper- level pattern becomes
unusually amplified. Northerly flow should continue to reinforce
the drier airmass across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only
mid-level clouds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will
remain calm or variable overnight, becoming southerly to
southeasterly during the day on Thursday. No mention of SHRA/TSRA
has been added Thursday afternoon with low confidence of
development affecting terminal locations.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With moisture increasing, low rain chances will return for
most of the area Thursday. For Thursday, minimum RH values will
be above 40 percent, with light easterly to southeasterly 20 foot
winds. Greater rain chances are expected Friday afternoon and/or
Saturday, with minimum RH values remaining above critical
thresholds. Southerly 20ft winds on Friday will become westerly
Saturday, but remain below 8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  95 /  10  20   0  30
Anniston    72  89  71  93 /  10  20   0  30
Birmingham  74  92  74  95 /  10  20   0  40
Tuscaloosa  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  10  40
Calera      74  91  74  93 /  10  20   0  30
Auburn      73  89  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Montgomery  75  93  74  95 /  20  20  10  20
Troy        73  91  72  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...56/GDG