533
FXUS64 KBMX 091101
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025

A trough at 500 mb will move across the Ohio Valley and
Mississippi Valley today, bringing weak height falls and a
coherent swath of southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer.
Rain chances should notably increase today, particularly north of
I-20, where numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected. A deficit in PWAT values south of I-20, associated with
a decaying weak 500 mb ridge, should result in somewhat lower
coverage of afternoon convection.

As the trough axis moves into Alabama on Thursday, afternoon
thunderstorm activity will become more widespread.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025

High rain chances will continue for Friday as a 500 mb trough
axis becomes more diffuse, leaving behind a zone of enhanced PWAT
values. Model trends are providing a clearer signal for 500 mb
ridging for Saturday through Tuesday, which may result a modest
downward trend in rain chances and an increase in temperatures.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025

Some patchy fog is around, mainly MVFR, except for LIFR conditions
both fog/cigs at TCL. This should last for a couple of hours
before going back to VFR. Diurnal convection is expected today
again. I have mentions at all TAFs for this. More patchy fog is
possible again tonight, but only have a mention in for TCL ATTM.
Winds outside of convection today should be WRLY 4-7kts with
mixing.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the
foreseeable future with elevated rain chances through at least
Friday. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west
and southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  70  89  70 /  50  30  80  30
Anniston    90  71  87  71 /  50  30  80  30
Birmingham  91  72  89  71 /  50  30  80  30
Tuscaloosa  90  73  89  72 /  50  30  80  30
Calera      90  72  88  71 /  50  30  70  30
Auburn      90  72  88  72 /  40  30  60  30
Montgomery  93  73  92  72 /  40  30  70  30
Troy        93  71  91  71 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08