624
FXUS64 KBMX 151931
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
231 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.REVISED SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024

High pressure over the southeast will allow for southeasterly
flow at the surface through the day Thursday, while the upper
levels remain northwesterly. PW values will be around 1.7 to 1.8
inches this afternoon with around 1000 to 1500 j/kg CAPE in the
southeastern half of Central Alabama. Would expect diurnally
driven convection to develop through the afternoon and evening,
weakening after sunset. High temperatures today will be in the low
to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits in the west,
closer to that high pressure. Heat indices should stay just below
105, the Advisory criteria, so will hold off on an advisory for
now.

By Friday morning, the high pressure aloft will move eastward,
putting the whole state under southerly flow. Moisture will advect
into the state through the day, with high temperatures expected
to be again in the 90s with heat index values around 105. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for roughly the northwest third of the
area. An MCS feature will move from TN Valley towards the state
Thursday night into Friday. CAMs have this feature weakening
before reaching the area, though a boundary will move into the
northwestern counties by the early afternoon and provide plenty of
lift for scattered thunderstorms. This boundary and the
development of storms will be in the northwest through the early
afternoon, slowly moving south and east, approaching the I20
corridor by the late afternoon and early evening. PW values will
be max for this time of year, so any activity will drop high
rainfall rates. Instabilities will be higher around 3000 J/kg with
modest shear across the area. A few thunderstorms could be strong
to severe with damaging winds the main threat.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024

Saturday.

Mid-level ridging will be positioned over much of New Mexico and
West Texas while an upper low will move southeast over the Western
Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday. Surface high pressure will
be to our southeast while a surface front will be slowly
advancing southeast across the Central Plains northeast into the
Central Ohio River Valley Region. Mid-level ridging will remain to
the west while the upper low moves southeast over much of
Michigan and the Northern Ohio River Valley later in the day
Saturday. Shortwave disturbances will move southeast over the
Northern and Central Tennessee Valley Regions with some model
solutions bringing these disturbances further south over our
Northern Counties. Surface high pressure will remain to the
southeast as a surface front advances further southeast, moving
into the Mid-South Region through the day.

Expect chances for showers and some thunderstorms to increase
during the day as activity develops and moves into the area ahead
of the front to our northwest. Due to increases in moisture with
continued temperatures in the 90s along with increases in wind
shear/dynamical support ahead of the surface front, there will be
some potential for some strong to severe storms with damaging wind
potential being the primary concern during the afternoon through
the evening hours.

Sunday.

Unsettled conditions will continue into the day Sunday as a
northwest flow persists over the area. Some modeling depicts
another shortwave diving southeast over much of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley region during the day on Monday. The
surface front is expected to move into the northern portion of the
forecast area, becoming positioned roughly along the Interstate
20 corridor by late morning.

Expect scattered showers with some thunderstorms to continue to
move southeast across the area as the surface front continues to
push southward with chances becoming more confined to the
southeast half of the area Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday.

Ridging in the mid levels expands to our west while residual mid-
level troughing persists to our east, resulting in a more
northerly flow pattern aloft over the area. Despite some continued
impulses moving south, drier conditions in the mid levels looks
to keep dry conditions across the area through midweek. The
surface front will clear the area, becoming positioned along the
Northern Gulf Coast by mid morning with expansive surface high
pressure extending across much of the Northern Plains extending
east into the Central Ohio River Valley and south into the
Tennessee Valley Region. This pattern will persist through midweek
with the surface front remaining to our south while surface high
pressure remains to our north primarily centered across the Ohio
River Valley Region.

Much of the forecast area looks to benefit from highs from the
mid to upper 80s across much of the north and central counties
with readings in the lower 90s far south and southeast. Overnight
low temperatures will similarly decrease, potentially ranging from
around 60 far north to the mid 60s far south on Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon. Confidence is low on coverage and timing so will leave
in VCSH in KANB, KASN, and KMGM through the afternoon. Any
activity should weaken after sunset with mostly dry conditions
expected through the night and Friday morning.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low-level moisture will continue to increase across the area with
chances for isolated showers and a few storms across the southeast
portion of the area this afternoon, increasing in coverage across
the northwest half of the area on Friday with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Minimum RH values will be above 40
percent with the lowest values west and southwest. Minimum RH
values will be around 40 percent across the southeast portion of
the area on Friday with readings elsewhere in the 50 to near 60
percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  94  72  90 /  10  30  30  50
Anniston    71  93  74  88 /  10  30  20  50
Birmingham  73  95  75  90 /  10  30  30  50
Tuscaloosa  73  96  76  90 /  10  40  30  50
Calera      73  94  75  88 /  10  30  20  40
Auburn      71  93  74  90 /  20  10  10  40
Montgomery  73  96  75  93 /  20  20  10  40
Troy        71  94  72  92 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24