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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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624 FXUS64 KBMX 151931 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 231 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .REVISED SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024 High pressure over the southeast will allow for southeasterly flow at the surface through the day Thursday, while the upper levels remain northwesterly. PW values will be around 1.7 to 1.8 inches this afternoon with around 1000 to 1500 j/kg CAPE in the southeastern half of Central Alabama. Would expect diurnally driven convection to develop through the afternoon and evening, weakening after sunset. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits in the west, closer to that high pressure. Heat indices should stay just below 105, the Advisory criteria, so will hold off on an advisory for now. By Friday morning, the high pressure aloft will move eastward, putting the whole state under southerly flow. Moisture will advect into the state through the day, with high temperatures expected to be again in the 90s with heat index values around 105. A Heat Advisory has been issued for roughly the northwest third of the area. An MCS feature will move from TN Valley towards the state Thursday night into Friday. CAMs have this feature weakening before reaching the area, though a boundary will move into the northwestern counties by the early afternoon and provide plenty of lift for scattered thunderstorms. This boundary and the development of storms will be in the northwest through the early afternoon, slowly moving south and east, approaching the I20 corridor by the late afternoon and early evening. PW values will be max for this time of year, so any activity will drop high rainfall rates. Instabilities will be higher around 3000 J/kg with modest shear across the area. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024 Saturday. Mid-level ridging will be positioned over much of New Mexico and West Texas while an upper low will move southeast over the Western Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday. Surface high pressure will be to our southeast while a surface front will be slowly advancing southeast across the Central Plains northeast into the Central Ohio River Valley Region. Mid-level ridging will remain to the west while the upper low moves southeast over much of Michigan and the Northern Ohio River Valley later in the day Saturday. Shortwave disturbances will move southeast over the Northern and Central Tennessee Valley Regions with some model solutions bringing these disturbances further south over our Northern Counties. Surface high pressure will remain to the southeast as a surface front advances further southeast, moving into the Mid-South Region through the day. Expect chances for showers and some thunderstorms to increase during the day as activity develops and moves into the area ahead of the front to our northwest. Due to increases in moisture with continued temperatures in the 90s along with increases in wind shear/dynamical support ahead of the surface front, there will be some potential for some strong to severe storms with damaging wind potential being the primary concern during the afternoon through the evening hours. Sunday. Unsettled conditions will continue into the day Sunday as a northwest flow persists over the area. Some modeling depicts another shortwave diving southeast over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley region during the day on Monday. The surface front is expected to move into the northern portion of the forecast area, becoming positioned roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor by late morning. Expect scattered showers with some thunderstorms to continue to move southeast across the area as the surface front continues to push southward with chances becoming more confined to the southeast half of the area Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday. Ridging in the mid levels expands to our west while residual mid- level troughing persists to our east, resulting in a more northerly flow pattern aloft over the area. Despite some continued impulses moving south, drier conditions in the mid levels looks to keep dry conditions across the area through midweek. The surface front will clear the area, becoming positioned along the Northern Gulf Coast by mid morning with expansive surface high pressure extending across much of the Northern Plains extending east into the Central Ohio River Valley and south into the Tennessee Valley Region. This pattern will persist through midweek with the surface front remaining to our south while surface high pressure remains to our north primarily centered across the Ohio River Valley Region. Much of the forecast area looks to benefit from highs from the mid to upper 80s across much of the north and central counties with readings in the lower 90s far south and southeast. Overnight low temperatures will similarly decrease, potentially ranging from around 60 far north to the mid 60s far south on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. 05 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Confidence is low on coverage and timing so will leave in VCSH in KANB, KASN, and KMGM through the afternoon. Any activity should weaken after sunset with mostly dry conditions expected through the night and Friday morning. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Low-level moisture will continue to increase across the area with chances for isolated showers and a few storms across the southeast portion of the area this afternoon, increasing in coverage across the northwest half of the area on Friday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Minimum RH values will be above 40 percent with the lowest values west and southwest. Minimum RH values will be around 40 percent across the southeast portion of the area on Friday with readings elsewhere in the 50 to near 60 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 94 72 90 / 10 30 30 50 Anniston 71 93 74 88 / 10 30 20 50 Birmingham 73 95 75 90 / 10 30 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 96 76 90 / 10 40 30 50 Calera 73 94 75 88 / 10 30 20 40 Auburn 71 93 74 90 / 20 10 10 40 Montgomery 73 96 75 93 / 20 20 10 40 Troy 71 94 72 92 / 20 10 0 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24