Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
411 FXUS64 KBMX 131043 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 543 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 118 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 A 500 mb ridge will persist across the region through Monday leading which will promote an upward trend in temperatures. Coverage of showers and storms this afternoon may be greatest but still scattered, across the middle of the forecast area, where a zone of higher PWAT values is modeled. To the east, subsidence and lower quality moisture should keep development more isolated. As more subsidence kicks in on Monday, more of our area should see very limited afternoon convection as temperatures reach the mid to perhaps upper 90s in a few spots. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 118 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Tuesday is expected to be very similar to Monday, with isolated thunderstorms and widespread mid 90s in the afternoon. The first signs of the ridge breaking down could begin late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night to our east as a northeastern Gulf disturbance enters the picture. We`ll have to monitor the prospects for a "backdoor" band of thunderstorms moving westward toward Alabama late in the day. Rain chances should trend significantly upward for Wednesday through Friday as the ridge breaks down with the arrival of the Gulf disturbance. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Significantly better aviation conditions are in place this morning. VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF cycle. Continued with PROB30 groups this afternoon to account for isolated to scattered convection. While chances are low, we could see patchy fog develop late tonight across areas that receive rain today. Confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this time. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 70 94 71 / 40 10 20 10 Anniston 91 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Birmingham 92 73 94 74 / 50 10 30 10 Tuscaloosa 93 74 94 75 / 40 10 30 0 Calera 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 20 0 Auburn 92 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 Montgomery 94 74 96 75 / 30 10 20 10 Troy 93 72 95 74 / 30 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...95/Castillo