Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
809 FXUS64 KBMX 092346 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 932 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 High pressure will move through the Gulf, with an upper level low pressure system and trough moving through the Ohio Valley. The state is placed between the two systems with west to southwesterly flow prevailing through the short term. This flow will advect plenty of moisture to the area with PW values near max for this time of year. Instabilities will average between 2000 and 3000 j/kg with higher amounts possible in the western half of the area this afternoon. Diurnal convection is expected today and tomorrow with strong storms possible. The wind profile is just strong enough for storm movement, with severe storms not anticipated at this time. With the moisture available, any storm will produce high rain rates, with a localized flooding concern in any areas that received rainfall yesterday and/or have training cells that build over the same areas. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 932 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 Friday through Tuesday, high pressure builds over the southeastern US. Through Friday, diurnal convection is expected with nearly the same parameters as the short term. Moisture should be higher in the southern half of the state, with coverage higher in these areas. For the weekend, an upper level ridge moves across the area. Though southwest to westerly flow will continue to advect moisture, diurnal activity may have less coverage. Right now, there isn`t enough to indicate severe potential, so will mention isolated to scattered convection each afternoon. By Monday, flow will transition to a northerly direction as the center of the high is closer to the state. This will bring winds that are slightly lower in speed with less moisture advection. Diurnal activity will still be possible, though the coverage will continue to be isolated. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 Thunderstorms should generally continue to wane over the next few hours, with all terminals expected to return to VFR by 10/03z. However, reduced VIS will be possible between 08 and 12z at many locations that received rain today. That should generally mix out by mid-morning, with thunderstorm chances returning past 10/20z. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with elevated rain chances through at least Friday. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 88 69 90 / 40 70 20 60 Anniston 71 86 70 89 / 40 80 30 60 Birmingham 72 87 71 90 / 40 70 20 60 Tuscaloosa 73 88 72 90 / 30 70 20 70 Calera 72 87 71 89 / 30 70 20 70 Auburn 72 88 71 89 / 30 70 30 60 Montgomery 73 91 72 91 / 30 60 30 70 Troy 72 91 71 90 / 20 60 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION.../44/