Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
700 FXUS64 KBMX 051748 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025 Models are trending a touch further east with the tropical system in the Atlantic. so that should place the main subsidence zone over our east this afternoon, with a resultant convergence zone in our western half. Latest RAP analysis shows around 2500 CAPE in the west, with much less in the east. Will increase rain chances in the west with the secondary convergence area. With the eastward jog, then a north/northwest motion expected later this afternoon, along with left over boundaries from this afternoon showers/storms, this should result in really two small areas of rain chances on Sunday. One in the west, and one in far southeast. With this being conditional on several factors will raise PoPs to 10 to 14 percent in these areas, but not mention with this update. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025 By Monday we should begin to see more scattered afternoon activity anywhere across the area. This pattern remains through early next week as a front once again tries to work southward toward the Tennessee Valley and southerly flow increasing moisture from the south. A few stronger storms could certainly be plausible Tuesday through Friday afternoons. By Tuesday night we will most likely be in a northwest flow aloft regime, so we will need to monitor for late evening/overnight MCS complexes to move in the rest of the period. A front will begin to push south toward the area on Friday but remains well north until next weekend. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA development is expected across western Alabama this afternoon, but confidence is much too low to include any impacts to terminals. Light easterly surface winds around 5 knots this afternoon will become variable or calm overnight tonight. Forecast guidance is hinting at some light fog development across portions of Central Alabama overnight through early Sunday morning, but have not mentioned any vis restrictions just yet. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Overall a dry forecast for most of the area this holiday weekend, with isolated showers or storms at most through Sunday. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds, with generally light winds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 95 70 95 / 0 10 0 20 Anniston 69 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 20 Birmingham 72 95 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 72 95 73 94 / 10 10 0 20 Calera 71 94 72 93 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 71 93 72 93 / 0 10 0 20 Montgomery 72 95 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 Troy 70 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16