590
FXUS64 KBMX 191806
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
106 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

This afternoon.

An amplified pattern remains over much of the country with a
strong mid-level ridge over much of the Four Corners States out
west while a mid-level trough was over the Mid-South Region.
Locally, RAP model analysis shows a shortwave over Northeast
Alabama, associated with earlier activity across our northwest
that is affecting portions of our northeast counties with another
shortwave over East-Central Mississippi and another disturbance
over far Southwest Mississippi. Additionally, a diffuse surface
front extended from near Houston TX northeast roughly paralleling
the Interstate 20 corridor to Atlanta and further northeast across
the Carolinas while expansive surface high pressure was analyzed
over the Midwest and into much of the Ohio River Valley Region.

Through mid afternoon, shower activity will continue to move
northeast, affecting much of our northern and eastern counties. A
dry slot aloft has brought a temporary end to the activity across
our southwest counties, from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Montgomery
and southwest. This temporary break in the clouds and showers will
continue to migrate northeast with time while additional showers
and some thunderstorms are expected to develop on the western
edge, where activity is already developing south of Meridian MS
and this is ahead of a line of showers and storms that extend from
SE of Jackson MS and extends south to over the Northern Gulf
Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi.

From mid through late afternoon, expect scattered to numerous
showers with best thunderstorm potential across the southern half
of the area. Winds this afternoon will be from the southwest at
4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far northwest
to the upper 80s generally near and south of the U.S. Highway 80
corridor.

Tonight.

Little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast as robust
ridging prevails out west and the longwave trough lingers over the
Mid-South. More disturbances are forecast to move northeast over
the area, resulting in continued mid and upper-level support for
lingering showers and a few storms overnight. The diffuse surface
front looks to stall across the area tonight before lifting back
northward as a warm front overnight. Coinciding with this
movement, some broad general consensus is noted among the
available modeling members for higher PoPs generally along the
more populated Interstate 20 corridor. Training activity will need
to be monitored for potential localized water ponding and pooling
in poor drainage areas.

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with lingering showers and
some thunderstorms across the area. Some patchy fog will be
possible across the northern portions of the area before sunrise
on Saturday. Winds will become southeast at 3-6 mph overnight. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 60s north to the low 70s
south.

Saturday.

Longwave mid-level troughing will persist over the Mid and Lower
Mississippi River Valley Region on Saturday. More mid-level
disturbances are depicted to move east over the south-central
portions of the area through the day. The surface front will
remain to the north and west of the area during the day Saturday.

Look for mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and some
thunderstorms across the area, becoming numerous during the
afternoon and into the early evening with highest chances across
the southeast half of the area. Winds will be from the south at
4-9 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s far north
and in the higher terrain east to the upper 90s far west and far
south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Sunday through Thursday.

The rainy pattern is expected to continue through much of the
upcoming week with higher than normal rain chances each afternoon.
Broad troughing stretches from the Great Lakes through the ArkLaTex
with high pressure to our southeast. This will allow for effective
deep-layer moisture flow with enough upper level forcing to allow
for the development of thunderstorms each day across Central AL. The
coverage of the diurnal convection will be higher than typical given
the upper level forcing. I`ve gone with roughly 60-70% chance for
thunderstorms each afternoon, decreasing to 20-40% overnight for
pretty much every day in the extended forecast. I think there will
be some days where coverage is a little less than this and some days
where it may be more, but discerning those details this far in
advance is difficult, so expect some changes to the forecast as each
day gets into range of higher resolution model guidance. The good
news is that with the increased coverage of rain/storms,
temperatures each afternoon should remain in the 80s to low 90s.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Unsettled conditions will persist over the area through this
cycle. Shower activity is expected to continue through mid
afternoon across the central and eastern northern terminals while
TCL/EET/MGM experience a break in the activity for a few hours,
but additional activity to the southwest will approach with
additional development expected from mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorm potential appears to be more limited to TCL/MGM and
perhaps near EET/BHM late this afternoon into early evening but
did not include at any site for this issuance. Some patchy fog may
develop before daybreak across the northern sites, otherwise
expect lingering showers overnight and into early Saturday morning
across the area, followed by more development later into the day.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind gusts. The humid airmass will keep
minimum relative humidity values in the 60 to 80 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  85  70  84 /  50  70  40  70
Anniston    70  84  72  85 /  70  70  60  70
Birmingham  71  85  72  85 /  70  70  40  70
Tuscaloosa  71  87  73  85 /  70  70  40  70
Calera      70  84  72  85 /  70  70  50  70
Auburn      71  87  72  86 /  60  70  60  70
Montgomery  72  87  73  88 /  60  70  50  70
Troy        72  88  72  89 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05