162
FXUS64 KBMX 150848
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

We will see a touch more moisture around today, especially in the
west and south. This combined with temperatures in the mid 90s will
likely result in Heat Indices at 105 to 106 across the south before
the coverage of the clouds and rain increase. As for shower and
storms coverage will be a little bit more than normal with coverage
of 40 to 60 percent this afternoon. Showers and storms will continue
through the early evening before dissipating overnight. Almost a
repeat performance on Tuesday, but dewpoints will be even higher and
there is a bigger area that may see Heat Advisory criteria before
the rain sets up.

16&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

A more amplified pattern will take shape mid week as a broad mid- to
upper-level trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. This will
feature an associated cold front that is forecast to advance south
toward the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. As such,
increasing moisture along/ahead of the front will generally support
an increased presence of convection these days. PoPs remain 60-70%
for Wed, and increase to 70-80% for Thu as PWs range 1.9 to 2.3" by
then. While best flow aloft will remain to our north these days, the
additional forcing and slight increase in mid-level flow could
result in a stronger storm or two, considering ample boundary layer
moisture and afternoon instability. Thereafter, the surface front is
progged to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast region, becoming more
diffuse as well. However, it will continue to provide focus for
enhanced convective coverage into the weekend with indication that
low-level flow remains southerly/southwesterly in our area. Some
additional support aloft is expected from a jet streak positioning
to our north along with potential flow-embedded shortwaves. Thus,
the overall synoptic picture for the period suggests we`ll see
beneficial rain and a break from excessive heat, despite what could
be muggy afternoons/evenings with locally heavy rainfall.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Mid level cloud cover should linger with light/variable to near
calm winds through the morning. More than normal coverage in the
afternoon of showers and storms (40 to 60 percent) at all sites.
Winds outside of convection generally SW 5-7 kts with mixing.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing
ceilings.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases
with the approach of a front Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered
to numerous convective coverage can be expected both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. Min RHs Monday will be in the 40 to 50 percent
range, with light to calm 20 ft winds. Minimum RH values will be
above 50 percent beginning Tuesday, with southwesterly 20 ft
winds at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  71  95  72 /  60  30  50  20
Anniston    93  73  93  74 /  60  40  60  30
Birmingham  94  74  95  75 /  50  30  50  20
Tuscaloosa  94  73  96  74 /  40  20  50  20
Calera      94  73  94  75 /  50  40  60  20
Auburn      94  73  91  74 /  60  50  60  30
Montgomery  96  74  95  74 /  60  40  60  30
Troy        95  73  94  74 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-
Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-
Russell-Sumter.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16