Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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169 FXUS64 KBMX 160021 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 721 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 Convective development has begun this afternoon across western portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we`re in a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A few strong storms could develop producing mainly isolated downbursts, but nothing out of the ordinary for summertime convection. Additionally, heat remains a concern as the moist airmass is resulting in humid conditions and low to mid 70s dewpoints. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Will begin looking at extending and expanding the Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon as heat indices look to reach 105F for a good portion of our south and west. Still expecting showers and storms to develop, so that could help to bring temperatures down for some areas by mid to late afternoon. A general lull in activity is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 Long term forecast is on track and lines up well with latest model trends. Looking at an wet pattern with southwesterly flow through a deep layer of the atmosphere. With a front approaching and stalling over the area, elevated rain chances can be expected through early next week. One trade off - cooler temperatures by the weekend, with no heat advisories needed beyond Thursday. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 A more amplified pattern will take shape mid week as a broad mid- to upper-level trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. This will feature an associated cold front that is forecast to advance south toward the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. As such, increasing moisture along/ahead of the front will generally support an increased presence of convection these days. PoPs remain 60-70% for Wed, and increase to 70-80% for Thu as PWs range 1.9 to 2.3" by then. While best flow aloft will remain to our north these days, the additional forcing and slight increase in mid-level flow could result in a stronger storm or two, considering ample boundary layer moisture and afternoon instability. Thereafter, the surface front is progged to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast region, becoming more diffuse as well. However, it will continue to provide focus for enhanced convective coverage into the weekend with indication that low-level flow remains southerly/southwesterly in our area. Some additional support aloft is expected from a jet streak positioning to our north along with potential flow-embedded shortwaves. Thus, the overall synoptic picture for the period suggests we`ll see beneficial rain and a break from excessive heat, despite what could be muggy afternoons/evenings with locally heavy rainfall. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms were continuing early this evening, mainly affecting ANB/MGM. Gusty winds and small hail will accompany the strongest storms. The overall coverage of storms will decrease through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight, some patchy fog is possible but mostly diminishing mid and high cloudiness. On Tuesday, it looks like a repeat performance. Showers and storms will develop in the afternoon heat and affect all terminals. Some gusty winds and small hail are again possible. Started off with PROB30 and will refine the time with further issuances. Ceilings if and when they develop will be VFR outside of storms. Winds will be light and variable overnight and west to southwest 5-10kts on Tuesday. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases with the approach of a front Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered to numerous convective coverage can be expected Tuesday afternoon. Minimum RH values will be near or above 50 percent beginning Tuesday, with southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 95 72 94 / 30 50 10 80 Anniston 73 93 74 92 / 40 60 20 80 Birmingham 75 95 75 95 / 30 50 10 80 Tuscaloosa 75 96 74 94 / 20 50 10 70 Calera 74 94 75 93 / 30 50 10 70 Auburn 73 92 74 91 / 50 60 20 70 Montgomery 75 95 74 95 / 40 60 20 70 Troy 74 94 74 94 / 50 60 20 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion- Pickens-Shelby-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...75