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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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421 FXUS63 KBIS 150620 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible over western and central North Dakota tonight, Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible over central and into eastern North Dakota Thursday. - A few showers and thunderstorms may pass through the area Friday night through Saturday night, but overall quieter weather is expected Friday into early next week. - Seasonable temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected through at least the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Most of the persistent rain has now pivoted into eastern North Dakota, but is forecast to push back into the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley on Thursday as the surface low occludes over the Red River Valley. Fog is beginning to develop along the western periphery of mid to high clouds associated with the downstream mid level low. At 1 AM CDT, two separate parts of the state had areas of dense fog: northern Burke and far northeast Divide Counties, and Emmons into Logan and McIntosh Counties. Trends will need to be monitored for a possible Dense Fog Advisory. UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The man band of thunderstorms with heavy rain are currently exiting the James River Valley. We got a report of over 4 inches of rain this evening west of Ellendale in Dickey County. So these storms continue to be very efficient rainers. To the west a couple of storms continue to hang on over Dunn county but activity in the west has dissipated quite a bit since late this afternoon. We made some updates pare back pops and sky cover across a good portion of the west and into central ND. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Longwave trough presently cuts through central Canada and south through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Associated surface low pressure is presently located over western South Dakota with another circulation in southern Saskatchewan, while large surface high pressure remains over the Great Lakes Region. This continues to pump very moist air into the state with mixed layer dewpoints in excess of 60 degrees, and widespread precipitable water of 1.6 inches or greater over most of the CWA. As a result, widespread moderate to heavy rain has developed and is presently impacting much of the state, mainly along and east of Highway 83. There were three main factors limiting torrential rain today. The first is that storms maintained a steady motion, so residency time over one area hasn`t been excessive. Second, instability east of Highway 83 has been relatively low overall leading to more stratiform rain and thundershowers than organized thunderstorms. Lastly, notable shear today is virtually non-existent thus preventing more sustained updrafts. The lack of shear is also what has prevented severe weather. Thundershowers will continue to gradually end from west to east through the evening for the western half of the state. Showers and thundershowers may continue this evening, through tonight, and into Thursday especially from the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains as aforementioned surface low over South Dakota wraps up and propagates into northern Minnesota. Steady rain from these showers and thundershowers may produce localized areal flooding, or ponding of water, but any further flash flooding seems unlikely at this time. Overall, mostly quiet conditions are expected Friday through Sunday night, though a weak shortwave may bring a few showers and thunderstorms through the area from west to east Friday night through Saturday night. The forecast for next week remains highly uncertain. There is fair agreement in an omega block setting up. However, exactly where the ridge amplifies over will determine if there are additional showers and thunderstorms and just how warm or cool the area becomes. Temperatures will remain seasonable in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most areas through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The eastern half of the state will continue to see low ceilings overnight, mostly IFR but with LIFR possible at times, followed by a slow improvement to VFR by mid Thursday afternoon. North central parts of the state could also see a period of MVFR ceilings late tonight through Thursday morning. Fog is beginning to develop from northwest to south central North Dakota. KBIS has the highest probability of visibility restrictions from fog among the major terminals later tonight into Thursday morning, but confidence in development there is still not very high. Rain showers are likely to redevelop over KJMS and surrounding areas on Thursday. Elsewhere, there are low chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, but most of the western half of the state should remain dry on Thursday. Northwest winds will increase to around 15 kts Thursday afternoon, with gusts near 25 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Hollan