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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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806 FXUS63 KBIS 180516 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy near surface smoke from distant wildfires will continue into Sunday morning. Patchy fog is also possible in the central and east late tonight through early morning. - Low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms returning Monday evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast and updated the aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Near-surface smoke persists over much of the area, especially the north, with elevated smoke most elsewhere. Otherwise, clear skies are present though some high clouds are moving into the southwest. The forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Diurnal cu that was present over almost all of the forecast area is rapidly dissipating, and will fully dissipate over the next few hours. Near-surface smoke continues over much of the area, though the lowest visibilities of around 6 miles are mostly in the north. Based on light winds that will either be variable or with a slight southeasterly component, as well as elevated dewpoints, added patchy fog into central ND, including the James River Valley, late tonight through early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 An impulse continues to across the northwest and north central this afternoon. The Minot RADAR is showing some light returns across the northwest moving into the north central. These showers are mostly likely not touching the ground as the cumulus clouds are around 9000ft. Near surface smoke from wildfires across Western CONUS will continue to linger across the state this afternoon leading to slight visibility reductions. Smoke may linger in the area through tomorrow morning. Low stratus from this morning fog continues to break apart as temperatures warm into the 70s. This afternoon the high temperature is forecast to reach the 80s out west and the upper 70s. Temperatures will continue to increase into next week as an upper level ridge parks over the Northern Plains. Sunday temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s out west and lower 80s across the central half of the state. Precipitation chances will remain near zero until early next week. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer Monday with the west touching the lower 90s and the rest of the state will sit in the mid to upper 80s as the upper level ridge moves eastward. Dew points will sit in the 60s leading to muggy conditions next week. Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday as an upper level trough traverses the upper level ridge. CSU machine learning does have a low probability for severe weather Tuesday. This will bring rain chances to the whole state as the wave moves across region. The upper level ridge will continue to linger across the state leading to above normal temperatures until the end of the week. The upper level ridge may begin to break down later this week leading to more zonal flow aloft and increased chances for precipitation. Zonal flow aloft could also lead to normal temperatures.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites in the next hour as low stratus and FG continues to dissipate. Some showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible around KMOT area in the next few hours. TSRA is not likely, but should not be ruled out. Winds will remain relatively light out of the southeast today through tomorrow. FU may linger around the state this afternoon leading hazy skies and visibility around 6SM. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 We will see VFR conditions at most sites through the period. That being said, we are expecting some patchy fog to develop overnight across portions of the central and into the James River Valley/Devil`s Lake Basin/Turtle Mountains areas across our east. The most likely site to see impacts from fog will be KJMS, where a window of MVFR visibilities is possible Sunday morning (and lower if fog becomes dense). Further west at KBIS and KMOT, fog development is a bit more uncertain. Some lingering near surface smoke overnight could lead to some brief dips into MVFR categories, mainly across the north. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...ZH