806
FXUS63 KBIS 180516
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy near surface smoke from distant wildfires will continue
  into Sunday morning. Patchy fog is also possible in the
  central and east late tonight through early morning.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms returning Monday evening. A few strong to
  severe storms will be possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in
the latest observations to the going forecast and updated the
aviation discussion below.

UPDATE
Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Near-surface smoke persists over much of the area, especially
the north, with elevated smoke most elsewhere. Otherwise, clear
skies are present though some high clouds are moving into the
southwest. The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Diurnal cu that was present over almost all of the forecast area
is rapidly dissipating, and will fully dissipate over the next
few hours. Near-surface smoke continues over much of the area,
though the lowest visibilities of around 6 miles are mostly in
the north. Based on light winds that will either be variable or
with a slight southeasterly component, as well as elevated
dewpoints, added patchy fog into central ND, including the James
River Valley, late tonight through early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

An impulse continues to across the northwest and north central
this afternoon. The Minot RADAR is showing some light returns
across the northwest moving into the north central. These
showers are mostly likely not touching the ground as the cumulus
clouds are around 9000ft. Near surface smoke from wildfires
across Western CONUS will continue to linger across the state
this afternoon leading to slight visibility reductions. Smoke
may linger in the area through tomorrow morning. Low stratus
from this morning fog continues to break apart as temperatures
warm into the 70s. This afternoon the high temperature is
forecast to reach the 80s out west and the upper 70s.

Temperatures will continue to increase into next week as an
upper level ridge parks over the Northern Plains. Sunday
temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to lower
90s out west and lower 80s across the central half of the state.
Precipitation chances will remain near zero until early next
week. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer Monday with the
west touching the lower 90s and the rest of the state will sit
in the mid to upper 80s as the upper level ridge moves eastward.
Dew points will sit in the 60s leading to muggy conditions next
week. Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday as an
upper level trough traverses the upper level ridge. CSU machine
learning does have a low probability for severe weather Tuesday.
This will bring rain chances to the whole state as the wave
moves across region. The upper level ridge will continue to
linger across the state leading to above normal temperatures
until the end of the week. The upper level ridge may begin to
break down later this week leading to more zonal flow aloft and
increased chances for precipitation. Zonal flow aloft could also
lead to normal temperatures.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites in the next hour as
low stratus and FG continues to dissipate. Some showers and maybe
a thunderstorm are possible around KMOT area in the next few
hours. TSRA is not likely, but should not be ruled out. Winds
will remain relatively light out of the southeast today through
tomorrow. FU may linger around the state this afternoon leading
hazy skies and visibility around 6SM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

We will see VFR conditions at most sites through the period.
That being said, we are expecting some patchy fog to develop
overnight across portions of the central and into the James
River Valley/Devil`s Lake Basin/Turtle Mountains areas across
our east. The most likely site to see impacts from fog will be
KJMS, where a window of MVFR visibilities is possible Sunday
morning (and lower if fog becomes dense). Further west at KBIS
and KMOT, fog development is a bit more uncertain. Some
lingering near surface smoke overnight could lead to some brief
dips into MVFR categories, mainly across the north.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...ZH