482
FXUS63 KBIS 161741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers may linger across the James River Valley through
  the afternoon (20 percent chance).

- Areas of wildfire smoke will be found today through tonight,
  diminishing somewhat on Saturday.

- Warmer weather is anticipated today into early next week. Low
  to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent) return to
  the forecast at the beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Limited updates needed early this afternoon. Smoke remains
across much of the CWA, although visibilities have improved
somewhat. Abundant cloud cover still remains across much of the
central and east. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are still
possible in the southeast, although current trends are showing
these chances are limited. Overall the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Limited updates needed this morning. Wildfire smoke and patchy
fog has reduced visibility to below 4 miles at times in the
north. Fog should dissipated by later this morning, however,
smoke looks to linger through today and based on the latest HRRR
Smoke run into tomorrow for some areas. Made some minor changes
to smoke and fog mention. For those looking for air quality
reports be sure to check airnow.gov.

Upper low to the east is also lingering clouds to the east.
Showers are limited, although still possible today. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon. Based on little
activity currently, limited pops to slight chance for the rest
of today.

UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. We continue to see
near surface smoke filter into the area which has become fairly dense
across the northwest (a few sites as low as 2 miles). Smoke will
continue to gradually drift south and a bit east through the
day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A nearly stacked low, currently centered over western Minnesota,
will continue to slowly meander east southeast through the day.
This pattern will lead to more wrap around showers lingering
across the James River Valley through the early afternoon. It
will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy over the James River Valley
and central through the day with a mostly sunny to partly cloudy
sky across the west.

A weak surface front will cross the state today, leading to
slightly cooler high temperatures west, but similar to yesterday
central and east. Highs will range from the mid 70s east to the
lower 80s west.

Upper level ridging then moves in tonight and will be the main
driver of the pattern through the weekend. A weak embedded
shortwave may skirt the far west tonight into Saturday morning,
potentially leading to a stray shower or storm. However, forcing
will be limited with mainly neutral to rising heights, keeping
chances pretty low (10 to 20 percent). As ridging becomes more
established over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas through
the weekend, temperatures will be on the increase. Highs on
Saturday will range from the mid 70s over the Turtle Mountains,
to the mid 80s (maybe a few upper 80s) southwest. By Sunday, we
will see the upper 70s northeast to the upper 80s southwest
(with a few lower 90s possible). Monday may even be a touch
warmer as the ridge axis moves across the state, with highs
forecast to range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

By Monday night, a stronger wave will flatten the ridge,
bringing our next low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40
percent). Western North Dakota may see some decent instability
but shear is forecast to be weak. Thus, the severe weather
concern is low at this time. The ridge pops right back up
Tuesday through at least mid week, keeping temperatures on the
warm side, mainly in the lower 80s to lower 90s (maybe some mid
90s return to the picture west on Wednesday). We may see some
low precipitation chances linger through at least Tuesday with a
few ripples moving through the ridge.

Finally, areas of near surface smoke from distant wildfires
continue to be observed across much of western and central North
Dakota early this morning. According to the HRRR-Smoke model,
near surface smoke should continue to expand over the next
several hours, gradually shifting south and a bit east through
the day, diminishing to the west southwest by this evening.
However, it remains a bit uncertain how long smoke aloft may
hang around.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Lingering low clouds will continue to bring MVFR to perhaps
brief IFR ceilings today, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward
including KJMS. Limited shower activity is expected from these
clouds, although the lower clouds could linger through the day.
Much of the area will also see wildfire smoke today, perhaps
bringing MVFR visibilities at times. Ceilings look to improve to
VFR heights tonight into Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke could
also linger tonight into Saturday. Visibilities may somewhat
improve, although some MVFR conditions are still possible,
especially in western North Dakota. North winds today will
become light and variable tonight, then easterly on Saturday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin