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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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482 FXUS63 KBIS 161741 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers may linger across the James River Valley through the afternoon (20 percent chance). - Areas of wildfire smoke will be found today through tonight, diminishing somewhat on Saturday. - Warmer weather is anticipated today into early next week. Low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent) return to the forecast at the beginning of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Limited updates needed early this afternoon. Smoke remains across much of the CWA, although visibilities have improved somewhat. Abundant cloud cover still remains across much of the central and east. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are still possible in the southeast, although current trends are showing these chances are limited. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Limited updates needed this morning. Wildfire smoke and patchy fog has reduced visibility to below 4 miles at times in the north. Fog should dissipated by later this morning, however, smoke looks to linger through today and based on the latest HRRR Smoke run into tomorrow for some areas. Made some minor changes to smoke and fog mention. For those looking for air quality reports be sure to check airnow.gov. Upper low to the east is also lingering clouds to the east. Showers are limited, although still possible today. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon. Based on little activity currently, limited pops to slight chance for the rest of today. UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 No major changes were needed for this update. We continue to see near surface smoke filter into the area which has become fairly dense across the northwest (a few sites as low as 2 miles). Smoke will continue to gradually drift south and a bit east through the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A nearly stacked low, currently centered over western Minnesota, will continue to slowly meander east southeast through the day. This pattern will lead to more wrap around showers lingering across the James River Valley through the early afternoon. It will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy over the James River Valley and central through the day with a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky across the west. A weak surface front will cross the state today, leading to slightly cooler high temperatures west, but similar to yesterday central and east. Highs will range from the mid 70s east to the lower 80s west. Upper level ridging then moves in tonight and will be the main driver of the pattern through the weekend. A weak embedded shortwave may skirt the far west tonight into Saturday morning, potentially leading to a stray shower or storm. However, forcing will be limited with mainly neutral to rising heights, keeping chances pretty low (10 to 20 percent). As ridging becomes more established over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas through the weekend, temperatures will be on the increase. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 70s over the Turtle Mountains, to the mid 80s (maybe a few upper 80s) southwest. By Sunday, we will see the upper 70s northeast to the upper 80s southwest (with a few lower 90s possible). Monday may even be a touch warmer as the ridge axis moves across the state, with highs forecast to range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s. By Monday night, a stronger wave will flatten the ridge, bringing our next low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent). Western North Dakota may see some decent instability but shear is forecast to be weak. Thus, the severe weather concern is low at this time. The ridge pops right back up Tuesday through at least mid week, keeping temperatures on the warm side, mainly in the lower 80s to lower 90s (maybe some mid 90s return to the picture west on Wednesday). We may see some low precipitation chances linger through at least Tuesday with a few ripples moving through the ridge. Finally, areas of near surface smoke from distant wildfires continue to be observed across much of western and central North Dakota early this morning. According to the HRRR-Smoke model, near surface smoke should continue to expand over the next several hours, gradually shifting south and a bit east through the day, diminishing to the west southwest by this evening. However, it remains a bit uncertain how long smoke aloft may hang around. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Lingering low clouds will continue to bring MVFR to perhaps brief IFR ceilings today, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward including KJMS. Limited shower activity is expected from these clouds, although the lower clouds could linger through the day. Much of the area will also see wildfire smoke today, perhaps bringing MVFR visibilities at times. Ceilings look to improve to VFR heights tonight into Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke could also linger tonight into Saturday. Visibilities may somewhat improve, although some MVFR conditions are still possible, especially in western North Dakota. North winds today will become light and variable tonight, then easterly on Saturday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...Anglin