074
FXUS63 KBIS 170300
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected across
  all but southwest ND Wednesday. The southwest is expected to
  reach the low to mid 80s Wednesday.

- High temperatures warm into the 80s across western and central
  North Dakota Thursday and through the weekend. This is near to
  slightly above average for mid to late July. A few readings in
  the lower 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday.

- Dry weather is expected through Thursday, then low to medium
  chances (20% to 40%) for thunderstorms return Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Quiet weather will prevail through the night as high pressure
settles through the area.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A few showers continue to slide through parts of north central
North Dakota into the James River Valley, so have added
isolated showers/storms to the forecast through mid-evening over
this area. Otherwise, quiet weather prevails.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper level ridge to our west will be the main player in our
forecast through the weekend and into early next week.

Currently, surface high pressure is situated over the Canadian
Prairie Provinces and into North Dakota. An upper level low was
situated over southern Ontario with a shortwave dropping south
over eastern North Dakota. This impulse could produce isolated
shower activity over eastern portions of central ND this
afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight...Expect partly cloudy skies this
afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures ranging from the
lower 70s Turtle Mountains to the James River Valley, to the
lower 80s far southwest. Any lingering shower activity should
quickly dissipate this evening with skies becoming mostly clear.
Lows will be cool tonight, in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

On Wednesday, the surface high currently over southern Canada
drops into eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Highs over most
of the forecast area will be at or just few degrees cooler than
today, while the southwest will be few degrees warmer. Sunny
skies are expected Wednesday with light winds in the morning,
turning southerly during the day.

Thursday will bring temperatures into the lower 90s over the
southwest, while most of the forecast area remains in the 80s.
Temperatures in the 80s will then be the rule across western and
central North Dakota through the weekend and into early next
week. The NBM MaxT ensemble spread remains quite narrow and flat
late this week through early next week, meaning a high
confidence of uniform temperatures, mostly in the 80s (which is
right around our normal highs for mid-late July) across western
and central ND. Only as we get into the middle to end of next
work week do we see the ensemble spread start to broaden out a
bit.

The aforementioned upper level ridge over the western U.S.
pushes northward into Canada Friday and through the weekend.
However a Hudson Bay low remains nearly steady through Saturday,
keeping the ridge axis to our west. A weak wave propagating
through the building western ridge may bring some low
precipitation chances into western ND Thursday night into
Friday morning. A late afternoon thunderstorm can`t be
completely ruled out in the west due to the heating of the day.
An impulse swinging around the Hudson Bay low will produce low
to medium chances for thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. At
this time, the potential for severe storms Friday through
Saturday looks to be on the low side with mostly marginal
instability and bulk shear over the area during this timeframe.
Of course this far out, that could change. The latest CSU-ML
probabilities keeps the risk of severe storms just south of the
southwest portion of the state Thursday. Current Friday through
Sunday probabilities also remain away from western and central
ND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms possible over north central
into eastern North Dakota through 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS