121
FXUS63 KBIS 171730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected across
  all but the southwest today. Highs in the southwest are
  expected to reach the low to mid 80s.

- High temperatures warm into the 80s across western and central
  North Dakota Thursday and through the weekend. This is near to
  slightly above average for mid to late July. A few readings in
  the low 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday.

- Dry weather is expected through Thursday, then a 20 to 40
  percent chance of showers and thunderstorms return Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No updates were needed as pleasant weather continues over the
forecast area at the time of this update. Any lingering fog
dissipated earlier this morning, with clear visibility at all
observation locations. Winds remain light and disorganized,
while fair weather cumulus has developed across the north and
portions of the southwest.


UPDATE
Issued at 830 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The aforementioned fog has begun to lift across the impacted
areas, with only a handful of minor reductions in visibility
to be found on webcams and observed by a few low-lying AWOS
sites. The forecast remains on track at this time, with Canadian
high pressure steadily making its way south into our area. Winds
remain light while the sky is mostly clear, though some
scattered mid level clouds linger over portions of the south
central and the southern James River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Patchy fog continues mainly in the northwest. Despite large
reductions in visibility on some AWOS sites, webcams and
satellite observations continue to suggest most fog is very
localized and mainly affecting low lying areas. Any fog is
still expected to rapidly dissipate this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Based on a few observations and hints of it on satellite, added
patchy fog for a part of the northwest through the early
morning hours. Overall, suspect most of this fog is very shallow
in nature with very limited coverage. Any fog should rapidly
dissipate after the sun rises.

Not a lot has changed overall. A west CONUS ridge will continue
to ever so gradually slide eastward today and amplify a bit
more. This will keep the area in northwest flow aloft with the
southwest experiencing WAA. Enough of this warmer air is
expected to mix to the surface to bring the return of
near-average temperatures (low to mid 80s) this afternoon in
the southwest, while the rest of the area remains below average
in the 70s. Conditions will remain mostly dry today. However, a
few popcorn showers are once again not totally out of the
question this afternoon, though confidence of occurrence is
very low.

By Thursday, summer will return to the area sans vengeance as
the ridge establishes more influence over the state. This will
result in near-average highs in the low to mid 80s for all but
the southwest, where above average highs are progged to reach
the low 90s. For Friday through the weekend and into early next
week, near-average highs in the 80s are expected to prevail most
everywhere most days. Low NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads
suggest confidence is rather high in this solution.

Embedded weak shortwave energy within northwesterly flow
aloft may bring the return of precipitation Friday through
Saturday. Nothing looks real organized at this time and current
chances range from around 20 to 40 percent Friday
afternoon/evening and around 20 to 30 percent Saturday
afternoon/evening. With a lack of decent shear, and as
supported by CSU Machine Learning, severe weather chances seem
very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds will remain light and are
currently disorganized, though will become easterly through this
evening, before turning southerly overnight into early
Thursday. Skies are expected to remain primarily clear, though
some smoke from Canadian wildfires is anticipated to linger
aloft over the northern Great Plains for at least the short
term.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Adam