625
FXUS63 KBIS 161138
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected to
  persist through all but southwestern ND through Wednesday. The
  far southwest is expected to reach around 80 today, with most
  of the southwest reaching the low 80s on Wednesday.

- High temperatures warm up into the 80s, which is near to
  slightly above average, Thursday through the weekend. A few
  low 90 degree readings are possible in the far southwest on
  Thursday, however.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Isolated showers continue in parts of the south central,
including the James River Valley, and the far southwest. These
will continue to diminish and exit the state over the next
couple to few hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Shortwave energy is continuing to generate showers, along with a
few thunderstorms in the southwest, over most of the forecast
area. These showers and thunderstorms will rapidly move into
South Dakota through the early morning hours. Once these showers
and thunderstorms exit the CWA, expect mostly dry conditions
through Thursday. That said, with cyclonic flow continuing
aloft, it wouldn`t be completely surprising if a few popcorn
showers, perhaps with enough instability to produce a rumble or
two of thunder, develop this afternoon.

A somewhat subtle west CONUS ridge is currently in place, along
with a positively tilted trough over eastern Canada down into
the Great Lakes Region. Along with weak flow at the surface,
this is allowing temperatures to remain below average for this
time of year with all but the far southwest expected to remain
in the 70s for today`s highs. Expect the ridge to amplify and
very gradually work eastward through the middle of the week
resulting in warming temperatures. That said, models are very
consistent with one another that the ridge will not center over
the Northern Plains, which will prevent conditions from becoming
excessively warm. Initially, gradually warming temperatures
will primarily impact the southwest where highs will reach the
low to mid 80s by Wednesday. By Thursday, however, everywhere
should reach the 80s with the southwest reaching the low 90s.
Beyond Thursday, seasonable temperatures in the 80s are forecast
to persist through the weekend.

As the ridge remains primarily over the western CONUS,
northwesterly flow aloft will prevail. This will produce
occasional shower and thunderstorm chances during the latter
half of the week. The best chance at this time looks to be off a
shortwave passing through Friday afternoon and evening, though
overall confidence in this particular wave remains low at this
time. As of now, the risk for severe weather with any showers
and thunderstorms later this week is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Isolated showers continue in parts of southern North Dakota,
although these are expected to continue to diminish and exit the
state over the next couple to few hours. Light winds along with
VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken