469
FXUS61 KBGM 172325
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
725 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area through Monday, with the threat of
localized heavy rainfall on Sunday. Drier and cooler conditions
will arrive Tuesday, with fair weather persisting for much of
the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update:

Main focus at this time was to update PoPs in the near term
through the rest of the evening. PoPs were lowered over CNY/NE
PA for the next couple of hours as not much in the way of
showers is expected based on the latest trends/CAMs, but did
give PoPs a boost over far western parts of our area across
Steuben and portions of Yates and Seneca Counties as a slow-
moving line of convection works its way in.

315 PM Update:

A broad upper low remains over northern lower Michigan, with
deep southwesterly flow in place across the northeastern US.
There are weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow,
which has led to some semi-organized clusters of showers today,
mainly across parts of NEPA and Central NY. But the stronger
forcing for lift remains to our west, and will continue to
remain so into the early evening hours. As a result, showers
will remain somewhat spotty, and more common roughly east of an
ELM-SYR line.

Convection developing in far western NY looks to move to the
NNE, but could graze the western Finger Lakes early this
evening, diminishing in intensity as it outruns the better
forcing.

Otherwise, scattered showers, with some moderate to locally
heavy downpours, will continue to be a risk through the night.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday as the
upper low moves into southern Ontario. Increasing low level
S to SE flow will transport deeper moisture into the area,
especially the Catskills and Poconos, while a jet streak
spreading from the Mid- Atlantic States into southern New
England will enhance upper level divergence across NY/PA.
Ingredients are there for localized heavy rainfall, but will
largely be dependent on where training of deeper convection sets
up. The Catskills into the Poconos/NEPA are somewhat more
favored given the deeper moisture, particularly late in the
afternoon and evening hours as a stronger shortwave trough
lifts up from the southwest.

A cold front will begin moving in from the west late Sunday
night, and showers will linger, but with diminished intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

The large trough overhead will slowly migrate eastward, being
mostly over the Northeast on Monday. Rain showers and storms can
be expected for the majority of the area all day Monday, with
rainfall amounts likely ranging from a quarter to half an inch,
with locally higher amounts where heavy downpours from storms
occur. The center of the low dives southward and into our area
Tuesday, maintaining chances for lingering light rain showers
and storms, mainly east of I-81. As this center low comes down,
it`ll drag some cooler Canadian air with it, going from highs in
the low to mid 70s Monday to the low to mid 60s Tuesday, and
dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update:

Things will get a lot quieter in this period as higher pressure
builds into the area. Low chances for precipitation is expected,
and temperatures will slowly warm back into the mid 70s to low
80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms across western New York
has the potential to reach KITH and KELM before weakening. Most
likely timing for this would be between 02-04Z. Ceilings may
lift some with this activity but visibilities reduced. Fairly
high confidence for at least MVFR ceilings throughout the
overnight With KITH and KBGM seeing the ceilings lower to IFR.
Ceilings will be slow to come up through the morning.

However, ceilings should lift by early afternoon. Additional
showers and thunderstorms should develop as well but coverage
and timing uncertainities leave us with a VFR mention of
showers at this time.

.Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...DK/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG/MWG