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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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519 FXUS61 KBGM 140550 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 150 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Only minor changes with the late evening update, forecast on track. Added in a mention of haze into the evening hours which is modeled to slowly shift southward and out of the region by the overnight hours. With the loss of daytime heating any spotty shower should dwindle by mid evening. 200 PM Update... Upper level trough passes through our region during this period with a few rotating shortwaves. Despite this high pressure remains in control at the surface. This leads to mainly dry conditions with isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. CAMs suggest shower development this afternoon along central southern NY and northeast PA. With the loss of daytime heating, any showers that do develop will quickly dissipate in the evening. Scattered clouds will dissipate soon after sunset with clear skies expected overnight. This pattern could support radiational cooling and fog development tonight and tomorrow night. Temperatures this afternoon will range in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. Temperatures range slightly warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 145 PM update... Relatively quiet weather pattern expected during the Thursday and Friday time frame as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through the Northeast. There is a slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak short wave and diurnal instability from late Thu morning into the evening, mainly east of the I-81 corridor. There is a 60 kt jet streak rotating south across Maine that may help force more robust convection over northern New England, but a good portion of central and eastern NY will be under the influence of the left entrance region of a 90 kt jet...which will act to limit/inhibit the large-scale vertical motion in our area. However, there will still be around 400 J/kg of ML CAPE and steep low level lapse rates, and around 1 inch PWs in the area...which should be enough to trigger popup convection. Organization will be limited given the lack of shear and overall dynamics. Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s...with low to mid 60 dew points. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s Thu night as the convection quickly dissipates in the evening. Skies will attempt to clear, but will be replaced by a secondary cloud deck from the next incoming wave from the west/sw in the form of a warm front. This area of warm air advection will have strong dynamic forcing associated with it as well as deep moisture which will prove conducive for more showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the next bout of rain is still slightly uncertain and could start as early as late Fri morning or as late as Friday evening. At this time the consensus is for a later start which will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s for much of the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 145 PM update... The period from Friday through Monday could be mostly defined by the presence of a slow-moving low pressure system which will contain/produce a broad area of clouds and rain showers. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to remain well off the East Coast, but will play a roll in slowing down the incoming low pressure system from the west. A strong supply of deep moisture is still expected to advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico into interior Northeast and combine with the broad large scale lift from the upper low to produced widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. Thunderstorms may not be well organized, so the severe threat should be limited. The main concern will be the threat for heavy rain on already saturated soils and into river basins already flowing at high rates...which could lead to more flooding and/or flash flooding. Temperatures will remain steady with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Valley fog is likely this morning at KELM, which will bring at least IFR visby restrictions and possibly airport min visby restrictions. IFR fog is also possible at KRME. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z or so, leading to a return to VFR conditions. All other terminals likely remain VFR through the next 24 hours (at least until 06Z Thursday). .Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...ES/MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJG