519
FXUS61 KBGM 140550
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps
a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day.
Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this
weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler
temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only minor changes with the late evening update, forecast on
track.

Added in a mention of haze into the evening hours which is
modeled to slowly shift southward and out of the region by the
overnight hours. With the loss of daytime heating any spotty
shower should dwindle by mid evening.

200 PM Update...

Upper level trough passes through our region during this period
with a few rotating shortwaves. Despite this high pressure
remains in control at the surface. This leads to mainly dry
conditions with isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon. CAMs suggest shower development this
afternoon along central southern NY and northeast PA. With the
loss of daytime heating, any showers that do develop will
quickly dissipate in the evening. Scattered clouds will
dissipate soon after sunset with clear skies expected
overnight. This pattern could support radiational cooling and
fog development tonight and tomorrow night.

Temperatures this afternoon will range in the low to mid 70s
with overnight lows in the 50s. Temperatures range slightly
warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in
the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM update...

Relatively quiet weather pattern expected during the Thursday
and Friday time frame as a weak ridge of high pressure moves
through the Northeast.

There is a slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
associated with a weak short wave and diurnal instability from
late Thu morning into the evening, mainly east of the I-81
corridor. There is a 60 kt jet streak rotating south across
Maine that may help force more robust convection over northern
New England, but a good portion of central and eastern NY will
be under the influence of the left entrance region of a 90 kt
jet...which will act to limit/inhibit the large-scale vertical
motion in our area. However, there will still be around 400 J/kg
of ML CAPE and steep low level lapse rates, and around 1 inch
PWs in the area...which should be enough to trigger popup
convection. Organization will be limited given the lack of shear
and overall dynamics.

Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and
lower 80s...with low to mid 60 dew points. Overnight lows will
fall into the 50s Thu night as the convection quickly dissipates
in the evening. Skies will attempt to clear, but will be
replaced by a secondary cloud deck from the next incoming wave
from the west/sw in the form of a warm front.

This area of warm air advection will have strong dynamic
forcing associated with it as well as deep moisture which will
prove conducive for more showers and thunderstorms. The timing
of the next bout of rain is still slightly uncertain and could
start as early as late Fri morning or as late as Friday evening.
At this time the consensus is for a later start which will
allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s for much of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
145 PM update...

The period from Friday through Monday could be mostly defined
by the presence of a slow-moving low pressure system which will
contain/produce a broad area of clouds and rain showers.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to remain well off the East
Coast, but will play a roll in slowing down the incoming low
pressure system from the west. A strong supply of deep moisture
is still expected to advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico
into interior Northeast and combine with the broad large scale
lift from the upper low to produced widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. Thunderstorms may
not be well organized, so the severe threat should be limited.
The main concern will be the threat for heavy rain on already
saturated soils and into river basins already flowing at high
rates...which could lead to more flooding and/or flash flooding.

Temperatures will remain steady with highs in the 70s and lows
in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Valley fog is likely this morning at KELM, which will bring at
least IFR visby restrictions and possibly airport min visby
restrictions. IFR fog is also possible at KRME. Any fog will
dissipate by 13Z or so, leading to a return to VFR conditions.
All other terminals likely remain VFR through the next 24 hours
(at least until 06Z Thursday).

.Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and
afternoon thunderstorms at times.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...ES/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG