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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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659 FXUS61 KBGM 130739 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 339 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through most of the week, with perhaps a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will again be a bit below normal today, before a warming trend begins on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 335 AM Update: Overall, a rather quiet near term period is expected with mainly dry conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies. The key phrase is "mainly dry," as a couple of weak shortwaves rotating around an upper level low located over the Canadian Maritimes may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorms each afternoon, with a slightly greater chance Wednesday afternoon (mainly east of I-81). That being said, the majority of the area will remain dry as surface high pressure largely remains in control. With the loss of daytime heating, any showers that do develop will quickly dissipate in the evening. Temperatures today will remain a little bit below normal for this time of the year, with highs mainly in the 70s. Temperatures return to near-normal on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Efficient mixing each afternoon will keep dewpoints on the lower side for this time of the year, with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. As a result, it will feel rather comfortable outside with little humidity. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 245 AM Update... High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through this period, with mostly dry and seasonable conditions. Some steeper lapse rates combined with a weak trough moving over northern New England could trigger some rain showers and isolated rumbles of thunder Thursday afternoon east of I-81. Moisture over the area is very limited, as PWATs will be around an inch, and with instability and shear low, showers that do develop should be short lived and not pose a flooding or severe threat. Temps will be seasonable and humidity low, with lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 305 AM Update... A pattern change will occur during the weekend as a strong and deep upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region on Friday. This stacked low should push a warm front into the region sometime Friday, bringing a return of SW flow, rain showers, and a more moist atmosphere. The low will become occluded as its eastward progression slows thanks to the upper trough elongating and becoming positively tilted as it interacts with a tropical system moving in the Atlantic off the New England coast. With PWATs sitting around 1.5-1.8in during this period, periods of heavy rain will be possible. We are currently in a marginal risk for flash flooding and with the recent rains combined with several days of rain showers, isolated flash flooding seems plausible. Temperatures will be cool thanks to clouds and rain, with highs Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s cooling to the 70s for Sat and Sun. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail for at least the next 24 hours (at least through 06Z Wednesday) at all terminals except for KELM and KRME. At KELM, patchy valley fog may bring at least MVFR visby restrictions early this morning, although this is far from a certainty with scattered clouds in the vicinity. If these clouds are able to clear out, it is possible that KELM drops to IFR- or-worse, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs. At KRME, patchy fog and/or low stratus will be possible early this morning, which may bring occasional IFR restrictions. Removed any restrictions from KBGM as any visby restrictions from patchy fog are expected to be mainly confined to the valleys. Any restrictions will end by 12Z/13Z, resulting in VFR conditions area-wide. .Outlook... Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...BJG