659
FXUS61 KBGM 130739
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through most of the week,
with perhaps a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
each afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly
likely this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will again be a bit
below normal today, before a warming trend begins on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
335 AM Update:

Overall, a rather quiet near term period is expected with mainly
dry conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies. The key phrase
is "mainly dry," as a couple of weak shortwaves rotating around
an upper level low located over the Canadian Maritimes may spark
a few isolated showers or thunderstorms each afternoon, with a
slightly greater chance Wednesday afternoon (mainly east of
I-81). That being said, the majority of the area will remain
dry as surface high pressure largely remains in control. With
the loss of daytime heating, any showers that do develop will
quickly dissipate in the evening.

Temperatures today will remain a little bit below normal for
this time of the year, with highs mainly in the 70s.
Temperatures return to near-normal on Wednesday with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Efficient mixing each afternoon will
keep dewpoints on the lower side for this time of the year,
with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. As a result, it will feel
rather comfortable outside with little humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
245 AM Update...

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through this
period, with mostly dry and seasonable conditions. Some steeper
lapse rates combined with a weak trough moving over northern New
England could trigger some rain showers and isolated rumbles of
thunder Thursday afternoon east of I-81. Moisture over the area
is very limited, as PWATs will be around an inch, and with
instability and shear low, showers that do develop should be
short lived and not pose a flooding or severe threat.

Temps will be seasonable and humidity low, with lows in the mid
to upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 AM Update...

A pattern change will occur during the weekend as a strong and
deep upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region on
Friday. This stacked low should push a warm front into the
region sometime Friday, bringing a return of SW flow, rain
showers, and a more moist atmosphere. The low will become
occluded as its eastward progression slows thanks to the upper
trough elongating and becoming positively tilted as it interacts
with a tropical system moving in the Atlantic off the New
England coast. With PWATs sitting around 1.5-1.8in during this
period, periods of heavy rain will be possible. We are currently
in a marginal risk for flash flooding and with the recent rains
combined with several days of rain showers, isolated flash
flooding seems plausible. Temperatures will be cool thanks to
clouds and rain, with highs Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s
cooling to the 70s for Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for at least the next 24
hours (at least through 06Z Wednesday) at all terminals except
for KELM and KRME.

At KELM, patchy valley fog may bring at least MVFR visby
restrictions early this morning, although this is far from a
certainty with scattered clouds in the vicinity. If these clouds
are able to clear out, it is possible that KELM drops to IFR-
or-worse, but confidence is too low at this time to include in
the TAFs. At KRME, patchy fog and/or low stratus will be
possible early this morning, which may bring occasional IFR
restrictions. Removed any restrictions from KBGM as any visby
restrictions from patchy fog are expected to be mainly confined
to the valleys. Any restrictions will end by 12Z/13Z, resulting
in VFR conditions area-wide.

.Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and
afternoon thunderstorms at times.

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG