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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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282 FXUS61 KBGM 141734 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 130 PM Update... With a trough to the east of us and a ridge to the west, Northwest flow will dominate the pattern across NY and PA over the next couple of days. With cold air aloft for this time of year and low level moisture in place will help instability develop with day time heating so isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Most of the showers will likely develop over higher terrain of the Tug Hill, Catskills, and Poconos and then slowly drift southward and dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. Overnight, winds will go calm with the surface high in place and with skies likely clearing around sunset each day, fog development is likely in the river valleys. Temperatures will also likely cool down below model guidance so overnight lows were brought down so most locations fall into the 50s with even a few 40s across the higher elevated valleys in the Catskills and Steuben county. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 AM Update... High pressure will be the main weather force Thursday night as the center of a surface high will be over the CWA. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50s. A bit warmer than usual when we have a surface high over the region but an upper level ridge to the west will see some clouds spill over the top of it and move into the area, keeping radiational cooling from developing. Friday morning, the ridge axis will slide east of the area, bringing a shift to SWerly flow and a warmer, more humid airmass. Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon/early evening. A return of prolonged active weather will begin Friday evening as a stacked low moves into the central Great Lakes region. This low pushes a warm front through the region Friday night, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Friday evening through the weekend. PWATs behind the warm front with this first wave of precipitation are in the 1.5-1.8 range so moderate to heavy downpours will be possible, especially where convection occurs. This may cause some flash flooding as we are already pretty saturated from recent rains. Temps remain warm Friday night thanks to the warm front, only falling into the mid 60s across the region. Saturday will continue to see unsettled weather as the low pressure system slows its pace eastward and spins over the Great Lakes. Guidance is showing a brief period in the late morning/early afternoon where some clearing could get surface instability going west of I-81, generating CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear during this period looks to be 30-35kts so thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe weather will be possible and how this develops will be monitored. PWATs on Saturday lower as dry air works its way into the region as the low occludes. Isolated heavy rain will be possible but shouldn`t be as widespread as Friday night. Temps Saturday will be in the upper 70s across the western Fingerlakes and Mohawk Valley, with mid to low 70s along and east of I-81. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 AM Update... The low pressure system will continue to be the main feature impacting our weather through this period. Sunday will continue to see scattered rain shower and thunderstorm chances, however bulk shear is much lower than Saturday, reducing the chance for severe weather. Flash flooding will remain a threat given the recent rains and saturated soils, but moisture available will be a bit lower as PWATs fall to 1.25 to 1.5 in as drier air continues to work in from the west. The trough pattern remains over the area Monday and Tuesday, continuing the unsettled weather pattern. High temperatures will be slightly below normal through the period thanks to rain and clouds, topping out in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few isolated showers will develop this afternoon mainly around BGM and AVP. It is unlikely one of these showers will strengthen into a thunderstorm. If one of these showers were able to impact BGM or AVP directly, brief MVFR vis is possible. Tonight, high pressure in place will lead to fog development similar to this morning. RME and ELM have the best chance at seeing IFR or worse vis from the fog with lower chances at BGM and AVP. The fog start time was pushed back about an hour from the time it started this morning as there is slightly drier air in place. Depending on how close showers get to AVP, restrictions may need to be lowered. Fog clears shortly after 12Z with VFR conditions at all terminals thereafter. .Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG