282
FXUS61 KBGM 141734
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
134 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps
a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day.
Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this
weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler
temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update...

With a trough to the east of us and a ridge to the west,
Northwest flow will dominate the pattern across NY and PA over
the next couple of days. With cold air aloft for this time of
year and low level moisture in place will help instability
develop with day time heating so isolated pop up showers and
thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Most of the showers will likely develop over higher terrain of
the Tug Hill, Catskills, and Poconos and then slowly drift
southward and dissipate in the evening with loss of heating.

Overnight, winds will go calm with the surface high in place
and with skies likely clearing around sunset each day, fog
development is likely in the river valleys. Temperatures will
also likely cool down below model guidance so overnight lows
were brought down so most locations fall into the 50s with even
a few 40s across the higher elevated valleys in the Catskills
and Steuben county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 AM Update...

High pressure will be the main weather force Thursday night as
the center of a surface high will be over the CWA. Temperatures
will fall into the mid to upper 50s. A bit warmer than usual
when we have a surface high over the region but an upper level
ridge to the west will see some clouds spill over the top of it
and move into the area, keeping radiational cooling from
developing.

Friday morning, the ridge axis will slide east of the area,
bringing a shift to SWerly flow and a warmer, more humid airmass.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region with
partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by the late
afternoon/early evening.

A return of prolonged active weather will begin Friday evening
as a stacked low moves into the central Great Lakes region. This
low pushes a warm front through the region Friday night, bringing
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Friday evening
through the weekend. PWATs behind the warm front with this
first wave of precipitation are in the 1.5-1.8 range so moderate
to heavy downpours will be possible, especially where convection
occurs. This may cause some flash flooding as we are already
pretty saturated from recent rains. Temps remain warm Friday
night thanks to the warm front, only falling into the mid 60s
across the region.

Saturday will continue to see unsettled weather as the low
pressure system slows its pace eastward and spins over the
Great Lakes. Guidance is showing a brief period in the late
morning/early afternoon where some clearing could get surface
instability going west of I-81, generating CAPE values around
1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear during this period looks to be
30-35kts so thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe
weather will be possible and how this develops will be
monitored. PWATs on Saturday lower as dry air works its way into
the region as the low occludes. Isolated heavy rain will be
possible but shouldn`t be as widespread as Friday night. Temps
Saturday will be in the upper 70s across the western Fingerlakes
and Mohawk Valley, with mid to low 70s along and east of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

The low pressure system will continue to be the
main feature impacting our weather through this period.

Sunday will continue to see scattered rain shower and
thunderstorm chances, however bulk shear is much lower than
Saturday, reducing the chance for severe weather. Flash
flooding will remain a threat given the recent rains and
saturated soils, but moisture available will be a bit lower as
PWATs fall to 1.25 to 1.5 in as drier air continues to work in
from the west.

The trough pattern remains over the area Monday and Tuesday,
continuing the unsettled weather pattern. High temperatures
will be slightly below normal through the period thanks to rain
and clouds, topping out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few isolated showers will develop this afternoon mainly around
BGM and AVP. It is unlikely one of these showers will strengthen
into a thunderstorm. If one of these showers were able to impact
BGM or AVP directly, brief MVFR vis is possible.

Tonight, high pressure in place will lead to fog development
similar to this morning. RME and ELM have the best chance at
seeing IFR or worse vis from the fog with lower chances at BGM
and AVP. The fog start time was pushed back about an hour from
the time it started this morning as there is slightly drier air
in place. Depending on how close showers get to AVP,
restrictions may need to be lowered.

Fog clears shortly after 12Z with VFR conditions at all
terminals thereafter.

.Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and
afternoon thunderstorms at times.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG