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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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625 FXUS61 KBGM 150129 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 929 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Made some adjustments to the temperatures and the dewpoints with the late evening update. Valley fog is still looking likely particularly where rain fell earlier today. Adjusted pops a bit based on storm coverage early this evening. With the loss of daytime heating the lingering showers and thunderstorms should weaken throughout the evening. Still some gusty outflows showing up on radar. 130 PM Update... With a trough to the east of us and a ridge to the west, Northwest flow will dominate the pattern across NY and PA over the next couple of days. With cold air aloft for this time of year and low level moisture in place will help instability develop with day time heating so isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Most of the showers will likely develop over higher terrain of the Tug Hill, Catskills, and Poconos and then slowly drift southward and dissipate in the evening with loss of heating. Overnight, winds will go calm with the surface high in place and with skies likely clearing around sunset each day, fog development is likely in the river valleys. Temperatures will also likely cool down below model guidance so overnight lows were brought down so most locations fall into the 50s with even a few 40s across the higher elevated valleys in the Catskills and Steuben county. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... A stubborn upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes Friday as part of a blocky pattern, but nevertheless, upper level ridging will squeeze into the northeast from the west, bringing warmer temperatures and an end to the spotty diurnal showers. However, the Maritimes low will finally push out on Saturday, breaking the blocked pattern and allowing a deep trough over the Great Lakes to drift eastward. Weak disturbances embedded in increased southwesterly flow aloft will promote widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday, with cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 230 PM Update... The Great Lakes trough will stall out along the east coast and weaken Sunday and Monday, but this will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the period. A cold front will push in from the west early Monday, with drier air reducing the precip threat by Monday night. Drier conditions with some cool low temperatures will prevail through mid-week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tonight, high pressure in place will lead to fog development similar to this morning. RME and ELM have the best chance at seeing IFR or worse vis from the fog. Although IFR restrictions are also possible at BGM and AVP as showers moved through earlier this afternoon. Otherwise guidance is not hinting at fog at BGM, but similar atmospheric set up should result in dense fog formation. Fog clears shortly after 12Z with VFR conditions at all terminals thereafter. Isolated showers are possible again tomorrow afternoon with possible MVFR vis impacts at RME/BGM/AVP. .Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...ES