625
FXUS61 KBGM 150129
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
929 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps
a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day.
Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this
weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler
temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Made some adjustments to the temperatures and the dewpoints with
the late evening update. Valley fog is still looking likely
particularly where rain fell earlier today.


Adjusted pops a bit based on storm coverage early this evening.
With the loss of daytime heating the lingering showers and
thunderstorms should weaken throughout the evening. Still some
gusty outflows showing up on radar.


130 PM Update...

With a trough to the east of us and a ridge to the west,
Northwest flow will dominate the pattern across NY and PA over
the next couple of days. With cold air aloft for this time of
year and low level moisture in place will help instability
develop with day time heating so isolated pop up showers and
thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Most of the showers will likely develop over higher terrain of
the Tug Hill, Catskills, and Poconos and then slowly drift
southward and dissipate in the evening with loss of heating.

Overnight, winds will go calm with the surface high in place
and with skies likely clearing around sunset each day, fog
development is likely in the river valleys. Temperatures will
also likely cool down below model guidance so overnight lows
were brought down so most locations fall into the 50s with even
a few 40s across the higher elevated valleys in the Catskills
and Steuben county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A stubborn upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes
Friday as part of a blocky pattern, but nevertheless, upper
level ridging will squeeze into the northeast from the west,
bringing warmer temperatures and an end to the spotty diurnal
showers.

However, the Maritimes low will finally push out on Saturday,
breaking the blocked pattern and allowing a deep trough over the
Great Lakes to drift eastward. Weak disturbances embedded in
increased southwesterly flow aloft will promote widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday, with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The Great Lakes trough will stall out along the east coast and
weaken Sunday and Monday, but this will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the period. A cold front
will push in from the west early Monday, with drier air reducing
the precip threat by Monday night. Drier conditions with some
cool low temperatures will prevail through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight, high pressure in place will lead to fog development
similar to this morning. RME and ELM have the best chance at
seeing IFR or worse vis from the fog. Although IFR restrictions
are also possible at BGM and AVP as showers moved through
earlier this afternoon. Otherwise guidance is not hinting at fog
at BGM, but similar atmospheric set up should result in dense
fog formation.

Fog clears shortly after 12Z with VFR conditions at all
terminals thereafter. Isolated showers are possible again
tomorrow afternoon with possible MVFR vis impacts at
RME/BGM/AVP.

.Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and
afternoon thunderstorms at times.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...ES