925
FXUS61 KBGM 120549
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will persist through the weekend, although
a stalled frontal boundary located along the coast may bring
some occasional showers to parts of the area, mainly for the
Poconos and Catskills. Temperatures warm back up to the upper
80s to lower 90s heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
140 AM Update:

Mainly just increased sky cover a bit for the remainder of the
overnight hours, but otherwise the forecast remains on track and
no other changes were necessary.

415 PM Update...

Relatively quiet near term period through Friday night. Current
showers lingering over Central NY will taper off through this
evening, with weak high pressure building in to keep
precipitation chances low through Friday morning. Widespread fog
development overnight will likely occur overnight across Central
NY and NE PA. Heading into Friday, a weak and disorganized
coastal low on the East Coast will increase chances for
precipitation for NE PA, the Catskills, and some areas east of
I-81 and south of I-86 Friday mid-morning through the night.
Temperatures will begin to warm up again, with high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update

No significant changes to this portion of the forecast with
today`s update. Previous discussion remains valid below:

A slow moving/nearly stalled frontal boundary will be
lingering along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines
which will keep a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms around through Saturday for at least the Poconos-
Catskills. There is a bit uncertainty regarding how far west
these scattered showers and thunderstorms will be able to make
it with high pressure to the west, but latest trends in the
model guidance does bring the showers a bit farther to the west
into Saturday morning. All of this being said, Saturday does
not appear to be a washout with plenty of dry breaks, especially
during the afternoon as a northwest flow of drier air takes
hold. Otherwise, it will remain warm with highs 85 to 90 over
the area.

Weak ridging will bring mainly dry conditions to the area
Saturday night though Sunday, although a few showers or
thunderstorms may sneak into the area (mainly west of I-81)
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Otherwise, after early morning fog Sunday will feature
mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM Update

The pattern becomes unsettled again for the beginning of next
week through the mid-week as the synoptic pattern becomes more
cyclonic. This will set the stage for daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
during peak heating. Otherwise, during times without showers and
thunderstorms, it will be partly to mostly sunny. It will remain
very warm with highs Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid
80s to lower 90s, with much cooler and less humid air arriving
by Thursday. Thursday and Friday are looking mostly sunny and
dry with highs in the 70s to around 80. Overnight lows drop into
the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Plenty of low level moisture will bring patchy fog and/or low
ceilings through the mid-morning hours, before conditions return
back to VFR by the mid-late morning. MVFR ceilings along with
occasional rain showers will be possible for KAVP late this
evening, but otherwise conditions should remain mainly VFR at
least until 06Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR, although a some scattered showers or a
thunderstorm may bring occasional/brief restrictions.

Saturday night...Patchy valley fog may bring occasional
restrictions, especially at KELM. Otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/KL
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...BJG