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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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891 FXUS61 KBGM 150733 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 333 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in east-central NY today. The next system moves into the region late Friday with rain continuing into the weekend. Temperatures trend warmer before a cooling back down this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 AM Update... A weak wave passing through this morning has kicked off a thunderstorm just east of Lake Ontario. There is a slight chance that the storm will drop into Oneida County but is not expected to drift more south than that. Valley fog continues to spread and will linger until just after sunrise. An upper-level low will sit over Nova Scotia today but will cover most of the Northeast. This will be the driver for isolated showers and thunderstorms over east-central NY this afternoon. MLCAPE is modeled to be 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, 0-6km bulk shear is expected to only be 15-20 kts. Lapse rates are fairly steep and DCAPE is valued at 800-1000. Similarly to yesterday and based on the values discussed, a couple of storms today may become strong or even marginally severe with a brief heavy downpour and strong gusts. Showers and storms come to an end this evening. Then with ridging building in, the rest of the forecast period will be dry. The next system does approach the region late Friday, so there is a slight chance that showers move into Steuben County before day`s end. Model soundings show a shallow inversion for tonight, though above the surface, there is more dry air and stronger winds than this morning. Fog is looking possible, but it may not be as widespread as this morning under the conditions highlighted in the soundings. Temperatures today will climb into the 80s for most. Those east of I- 81, where skies may be cloudier with the showers, may see temps struggle to get out of the upper 70s. Today`s temperatures were bumped up slightly due to being under mostly sunny skies. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the 50s and low 60s once again. Conditions will be slightly warmer on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... A stubborn upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes Friday as part of a blocky pattern, but nevertheless, upper level ridging will squeeze into the northeast from the west, bringing warmer temperatures and an end to the spotty diurnal showers. However, the Maritimes low will finally push out on Saturday, breaking the blocked pattern and allowing a deep trough over the Great Lakes to drift eastward. Weak disturbances embedded in increased southwesterly flow aloft will promote widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday, with cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 230 PM Update... The Great Lakes trough will stall out along the east coast and weaken Sunday and Monday, but this will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the period. A cold front will push in from the west early Monday, with drier air reducing the precip threat by Monday night. Drier conditions with some cool low temperatures will prevail through mid-week. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fog is spreading through the valleys. Fog is possible at most terminals tonight, though confidence is low on timing and the level of restrictions. For this update, previous additions were modified slightly based on activity from previous nights. Guidance hits ELM with the lowest visibilities, but with the rain earlier today, guidance likely isn`t picking up on possible lower conditions at other terminals well. Amendments will likely be needed as conditions change. Otherwise, after the early morning hours, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across Eastern NY later today. There is some uncertainty how far west they will come, though RME will have the best chance for a shower or two. If a shower were to pass over a terminal, then additional restrictions will be possible. Winds will be light and variable throughout most of this period. In the afternoon, winds will likely settle out of the northwest with speeds of around 5 kts before becoming light and variable again in the evening. .Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...BTL