891
FXUS61 KBGM 150733
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in east-central
NY today. The next system moves into the region late Friday with
rain continuing into the weekend. Temperatures trend warmer before a
cooling back down this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update...

A weak wave passing through this morning has kicked off a
thunderstorm just east of Lake Ontario. There is a slight chance
that the storm will drop into Oneida County but is not expected to
drift more south than that. Valley fog continues to spread and will
linger until just after sunrise.

An upper-level low will sit over Nova Scotia today but will cover
most of the Northeast. This will be the driver for isolated showers
and thunderstorms over east-central NY this afternoon. MLCAPE is
modeled to be 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, 0-6km bulk shear is
expected to only be 15-20 kts. Lapse rates are fairly steep and
DCAPE is valued at 800-1000. Similarly to yesterday and based on the
values discussed, a couple of storms today may become strong or even
marginally severe with a brief heavy downpour and strong gusts.
Showers and storms come to an end this evening.

Then with ridging building in, the rest of the forecast period will
be dry. The next system does approach the region late Friday, so
there is a slight chance that showers move into Steuben County
before day`s end. Model soundings show a shallow inversion for
tonight, though above the surface, there is more dry air and
stronger winds than this morning. Fog is looking possible, but it
may not be as widespread as this morning under the conditions
highlighted in the soundings.

Temperatures today will climb into the 80s for most. Those east of I-
81, where skies may be cloudier with the showers, may see temps
struggle to get out of the upper 70s. Today`s temperatures were
bumped up slightly due to being under mostly sunny skies. Overnight,
temperatures will fall into the 50s and low 60s once again.
Conditions will be slightly warmer on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A stubborn upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes
Friday as part of a blocky pattern, but nevertheless, upper
level ridging will squeeze into the northeast from the west,
bringing warmer temperatures and an end to the spotty diurnal
showers.

However, the Maritimes low will finally push out on Saturday,
breaking the blocked pattern and allowing a deep trough over the
Great Lakes to drift eastward. Weak disturbances embedded in
increased southwesterly flow aloft will promote widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday, with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The Great Lakes trough will stall out along the east coast and
weaken Sunday and Monday, but this will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the period. A cold front
will push in from the west early Monday, with drier air reducing
the precip threat by Monday night. Drier conditions with some
cool low temperatures will prevail through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog is spreading through the valleys. Fog is possible at most
terminals tonight, though confidence is low on timing and the
level of restrictions. For this update, previous additions were
modified slightly based on activity from previous nights.
Guidance hits ELM with the lowest visibilities, but with the
rain earlier today, guidance likely isn`t picking up on possible
lower conditions at other terminals well. Amendments will
likely be needed as conditions change.

Otherwise, after the early morning hours, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected across Eastern NY later today. There is some
uncertainty how far west they will come, though RME will have
the best chance for a shower or two. If a shower were to pass
over a terminal, then additional restrictions will be possible.

Winds will be light and variable throughout most of this period.
In the afternoon, winds will likely settle out of the northwest
with speeds of around 5 kts before becoming light and variable
again in the evening.

.Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon
thunderstorms at times.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BTL