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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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584 FXUS61 KBGM 161804 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 204 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be warm and dry, but the next system moves into the region tonight with rain continuing through the weekend and into MOnday. Afternoon thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will trend cooler though the weekend. Drier conditions will return Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 150 PM Update... Upper level ridge axis runs across central NY and PA, while an upper low is carving itself out over the western Great Lakes. High clouds are slowly creeping closer as the ridge slowly shifts east, and very spotty showers are also noted over parts of western NY, and moreso over western PA and Ohio. The ridge axis will drift east into New England overnight, with weak PVA bringing scattered showers into the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Models have trended weaker and more spotty with this initial round of showers. Forcing during the day Saturday also has trended weaker, and a fairly strong inversion around 900-800 mb will limit instability over all but the far western Finger Lakes region. Considering the trends, Saturday might not be too terrible all things considered, with relatively spotty precip. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more likely heading into Saturday night and Sunday as the upper low moves closer. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 450 AM Update: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Saturday night as the trough continues to track eastward. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s At the synoptic scale, Sunday`s pattern looks rather interesting with Hurricane Ernesto moving northeastward well off the Mid- Atlantic coast and the rather deep trough continuing to move eastward into our area. A rather moist, southeasterly flow will advect in from the Atlantic and set the stage for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding, especially for the Poconos- Catskills. What will be noteworthy is the possible sharp cutoff between the locally heavy rainfall and little to no rainfall at all due to the drier air in between the two systems. At this time, this sharp cutoff is expected to be east of our region (more along the immediate coast), which means that our entire area will have a risk for locally heavy rainfall. PWATs will also be on the rise (approaching 1.75"), so this will also aid in heavy rainfall potential. WPC continues to have our entire region in a "Marginal Risk" for Excessive Rainfall in their Day 3 outlook, but with the slightly higher potential for the Poconos-Catskills, those areas are now in a "Slight Risk." Then the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease Sunday night with the loss of diurnal heating. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 450 AM Update: Monday will remain a bit unsettled with the stubborn trough still working its way through the area, but eventually this trough finally kicks east of the region by Tuesday. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday, but Tuesday may actually end up mostly dry with perhaps a few lingering showers. Then the weather pattern becomes quiet again as a blocking pattern sets up (similar to this week) and surface high pressure dominates our weather through most of the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue to be a bit below normal for this time of the year with highs mainly in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging will keep VFR conditions in place this afternoon and evening, with increasing high and mid level clouds working in from the west. A slow-moving upper low over the Great Lakes will bring southwesterly flow aloft overnight, with embedded disturbances bringing increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight and through the day Saturday. VFR conditions will hold on most of the night, but ceilings will lower into MVFR range early Saturday morning. Winds will remain fairly light, 5-10 knots through the period, with a few gusts around 15 knots possible overnight into Saturday. Thunder chances will increase Saturday afternoon, but confidence in timing is too low to include in TAFs at this point. .Outlook... Saturday Evening through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BTL