584
FXUS61 KBGM 161804
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and dry, but the next system moves into the
region tonight with rain continuing through the weekend and into
MOnday. Afternoon thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures will trend cooler though the weekend.
Drier conditions will return Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
150 PM Update...
Upper level ridge axis runs across central NY and PA, while an
upper low is carving itself out over the western Great Lakes.
High clouds are slowly creeping closer as the ridge slowly
shifts east, and very spotty showers are also noted over parts
of western NY, and moreso over western PA and Ohio.

The ridge axis will drift east into New England overnight, with
weak PVA bringing scattered showers into the region late tonight
into Saturday morning. Models have trended weaker and more
spotty with this initial round of showers.

Forcing during the day Saturday also has trended weaker, and a
fairly strong inversion around 900-800 mb will limit instability
over all but the far western Finger Lakes region.

Considering the trends, Saturday might not be too terrible all
things considered, with relatively spotty precip. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will become more likely heading into
Saturday night and Sunday as the upper low moves closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
450 AM Update:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Saturday night as the trough continues to track eastward. Otherwise,
it will be mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s

At the synoptic scale, Sunday`s pattern looks rather interesting
with Hurricane Ernesto moving northeastward well off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and the rather deep trough continuing to move
eastward into our area. A rather moist, southeasterly flow will
advect in from the Atlantic and set the stage for locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding, especially for the
Poconos- Catskills. What will be noteworthy is the possible
sharp cutoff between the locally heavy rainfall and little to no
rainfall at all due to the drier air in between the two
systems. At this time, this sharp cutoff is expected to be east
of our region (more along the immediate coast), which means that
our entire area will have a risk for locally heavy rainfall.
PWATs will also be on the rise (approaching 1.75"), so this will
also aid in heavy rainfall potential. WPC continues to have our
entire region in a "Marginal Risk" for Excessive Rainfall in
their Day 3 outlook, but with the slightly higher potential for
the Poconos-Catskills, those areas are now in a "Slight Risk."
Then the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
Sunday night with the loss of diurnal heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
450 AM Update:

Monday will remain a bit unsettled with the stubborn trough
still working its way through the area, but eventually this
trough finally kicks east of the region by Tuesday. As a result,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Monday, but Tuesday may actually end up mostly dry with perhaps
a few lingering showers. Then the weather pattern becomes quiet
again as a blocking pattern sets up (similar to this week) and
surface high pressure dominates our weather through most of the
remainder of the week.

Temperatures will continue to be a bit below normal for this
time of the year with highs mainly in the 70s and lows mainly in
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging will keep VFR conditions in place this
afternoon and evening, with increasing high and mid level clouds
working in from the west. A slow-moving upper low over the
Great Lakes will bring southwesterly flow aloft overnight, with
embedded disturbances bringing increasing chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms overnight and through the day
Saturday. VFR conditions will hold on most of the night, but
ceilings will lower into MVFR range early Saturday morning.

Winds will remain fairly light, 5-10 knots through the period,
with a few gusts around 15 knots possible overnight into
Saturday.

Thunder chances will increase Saturday afternoon, but confidence
in timing is too low to include in TAFs at this point.


.Outlook...

Saturday Evening through Monday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL