718
FXUS61 KBGM 060639
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
239 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be mainly dry today with plenty of sunshine across the
area. Temperatures will be on the rise, reaching the upper 80s
and low 90s this afternoon and again on Monday. A more active
weather pattern returns early this week with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, before drier
weather arrives on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 AM Update

Strong upper level ridging through the near term will lead to
increasing humidity and temperatures in the near term period.

Anticyclonic flow and upper level ridging will be over the
region today. Can`t rule out a stray shower or t`storm across
the NY thruway corridor or southern Tug Hill plateau, otherwise
it will be dry and mostly sunny for the rest of the CWA. Low
level moisture is starting to increase, with surface dew points
expected to be in the 60s this afternoon. These elevated dew
points will combine with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s to produce high heat indices in the mid to upper 90s in
the valley locations. Heat advisories remain in effect, for the
Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro area, and now expanded into
Madison/S. Oneida county from late this morning through early
this evening. Heat advisories may need to be extended in time
through Monday for at least some locations...but there is
uncertainty with cloud cover and how that could impact
temperatures Monday. Dew points will be higher Monday, in the
low to mid-70s so it will feel extremely muggy out there.

Quiet tonight, with partly cloudy skies and muggy overnight lows
in the mid-60s to lower 70s expected. Monday starts off mainly
dry, but clouds increase and eventually showers and thunderstorms
become likely by the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will be
quite high over the NW half and far SE portion of the forecast
area...between 1.8 to 2.1 inches. These high pwat values will
combine with MUCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg to produce
locally heavy rainfall in thunderstorms. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Chantal will be potentially enhancing the rain
and t`storm potential as a slow moving front sinks SE across the
area late in the day. WPC has our area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall and isolated flash-flooding...this will
certainly be something to watch closely over the next day or
two. SPC also has a marginal risk for isolated severe storms
with damaging winds, across the NW half of the CWA Monday
afternoon & evening. Soundings show 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts
of 0-6km shear and over 1000 J/kg of DCAPE...so we will need to
watch for any better organized storms that may produce strong,
gusty to isolated damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Forecast...

The short term remains hot and muggy with an increasing threat
of heavy rain. Tropical Storm Chantal is looking to make
landfall in the Carolinas early Sunday and the remnants slowly
drift inland into Monday. Given that models tend to under do the
latent heat release in these smaller tropical systems, an
incoming trough will likely slow down as the upper level ridge
is strengthened. Looking at PWAT fields in models and ensembles,
the deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of
Chantal will be advecting into the northeast. Right now it is
looking close with timing on arrival of deeper moisture and the
front but there is concern that as the trough slows down, odds
will be better that the widespread >2.0 inch PWAT arrives in
time. Moisture transport vectors will also be aligned with the
front moving in with the through which would favor training of
storms and back building. Location of heavy rain is uncertain
due to the rainfall being convectively driven but 2 to 4 inches
of rain in less than 3 hours is likely somewhere in our region
if the front continues to slow down. In addition to the heavy
rain, wind shear is also elevated, with ensemble spread of 0-6
km shear between 25 and 35 knots and ensemble mixed layer CAPE
up between 500 and 1000 J/kg so a few strong to severe
thunderstorms cant be ruled out.

The heavy rain potential could linger into Tuesday if the front
stalls or slows to a crawl which some of the global models are
starting to trend towards. This will have to be watched as areas
that receive heavy rains on Monday could see additional heavy
rains on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM Forecast...

The long term remains unsettled with temperatures still on the
warm side with elevated humidity continuing. Another shortwave
trough swings through mid week and with still some lingering
moisture from the remnants of Chantal, additional heavy rain is
possible Wednesday and Thursday. Shear remains elevated with the
shortwave passing through, remaining around 20 to 35 knots so
there is at least a low risk of severe thunderstorms both
Wednesday and Thursday. Into next weekend, the GEFS and EPS
ensemble 500 mb heights are both hinting at greater odds of
ridging. Despite the ridging, low level moisture remains in
place so instability will build each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
205 AM Update

VFR through the TAF period with scattered high clouds and
perhaps a few pop up mid level cumulus clouds this afternoon.
There could be some tempo MVFR mist at ELM around or just before
daybreak, but this will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

Light and variable winds early this morning, becoming south-
southwest 7-15 kts with the possibility for a few gusts up to
20 knots this afternoon. Winds decrease, becoming light and
variable again after sunset.

Outlook...

Late Tonight...Marine stratus cloud layer could move into the
AVP area, and nearby BGM. VFR continues elsewhere.

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with a low chance
for showers or a thunderstorm.

Thursday... Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ015>018-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG/JTC
LONG TERM...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG