


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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450 FXUS61 KBGM 050701 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 301 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... It will mainly dry this weekend, with temperatures on the rise, reaching the upper 80s and low 90s by Sunday. A more active weather pattern returns early next with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday as a slow moving front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 AM Update Starting off cool this morning with patchy valley fog, as high pressure remains overhead. The rest of today will feature mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures as the southwest return flow develops around the offshore surface high pressure system. There could be just enough low level moisture and instability to initiate isolated thunderstorms over Steuben County, and the west-central Finger Lakes this afternoon and early evening. Any storms that do form would drift east around 20 mph. MLCAPE will be rather high between 500-1000 J/kg, but shear will be low this afternoon, only around 15-20 kts in the 0-6km layer; so while severe storms are not expected anyone planning to be outdoors, and especially those on or near lakes should remain weather aware, have a plan and take proper precautions. Not all CAMs are in agreement on storm development today, so capped PoPs between 20-35%, with the best chance being in the Hornell, Penn Yan and Geneva areas...the isolated storms could impact Keuka, Seneca and perhaps even Cayuga lake late in the day. For the rest of the forecast area, expect mainly sunny conditions and warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s. With dew points in the upper 50s to mid-60s it will feel slightly humid out there at times. Tonight is mostly clear with light south winds and mild overnight lows in the 60s to near 70 over the Finger Lakes. The main story for Sunday will be the increasing heat and humidity. There is a low chance, around 10% for an isolated thunderstorm to pop up over the northern Catskills to Mohawk Valley area...otherwise it will be mostly sunny, hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These hot temperatures will combine with dew points in the mid-60s to around 70 to produce some elevated heat indices. There is the potential for some of the warmer valley locations across the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, Syracuse metro and Mohawk valley to reach heat advisory criteria. Will hold off on any advisories just yet, to allow for guidance to better hone in on temps/dew points and heat indices. Once or if confidence does increase heat advisories would then be issued. Will continue to mention the heat in the HWO for messaging at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 215 AM Forecast... Monday will be warm again as we are between a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic and a trough moving in from the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. A plume of warm, humid air riding the edge of the ridge will be the main culprit of this heat. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The trough will continue to move to the ENE, riding the edge of the ridge. This action will push a very slow moving front into the area Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front, CAPE values around 1500 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 25kts will allow for a chance of some strong storms to develop. MBE vectors are quite low as the mid level flow is aligned with the front. This, combined with PWATs increasing through the day and approaching 2in across the CWA could generate slow moving, heavy rain producing thunderstorms that could cause localized flash flooding issues. Confidence in this is low at this time as some guidance is quicker to move the front through than others. We will also have to monitor the developing tropical depression in the SE as its development will have an impact on how quickly the front moves through the area. On Tuesday, the front should be through much of the CWA, possibly still hanging around just south of Hazleton. Temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. More showers and thunderstorms are forecast as another upper level trough slides across the area as the remnants of the tropical depression moves into the area. Best chance for showers will be over the Catskills into NEPA, but this will depend on the frontal positioning and path of the low. Precipitation should be out of the area by Tuesday night, with lows in the low 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 245 AM Forecast... Broad upper level troughing will be present mid to late week, with mid-level shortwaves rippling through the pattern, keeping the weather pattern active. Wednesday has been progged as somewhat dry, but trends are showing a slightly better chance for afternoon showers and storms to develop. Will have to keep an eye on how this evolves. More shortwaves Thursday and Friday keep rain chances going through the period. Temps will be somewhat seasonal, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals with ELM potentially seeing fog towards sunrise (9-11z). The cross over temperatures at ELM is around 50-51F based on yesterday`s observations. It is already getting close to this temperature as of 06z...but bkn high clouds are preventing fog formation at this time. These high clouds are forecast to move away from ELM by 7/8z...and after skies clear out is when the fog should form. Only have an IFR tempo in now for the period that fog could occur in but did not bring the TAF to mins due to lower than usual confidence. Tomorrow is another clear day with light winds. A few thunderstorms could move in from the west and impact ELM or ITH late in the day towards 20-24z...but coverage and confidence was much too low to include in the tafs at this time. Winds will be light and terrain driven overnight, turning southwesterly less than 10 kts Saturday. Outlook... Late Saturday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers or a thunderstorm. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG/MJM