210
FXUS61 KBGM 152332
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
732 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in east-central
NY today. The next system moves into the region late Friday with
rain continuing into the weekend. Temperatures trend warmer before a
cooling back down this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes with the early evening update. Attention
turns later tonight for additional fog discussed below.

147 PM Update...
The persistent upper low over the Maritimes is finally
beginning to reduce its influence on our weather, though we do
remain in northerly flow on its western periphery. A weak
shortwave is dropping into northern NY, and this will help spark
off a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern
half of the CWA through early this evening, but coverage will
take a downtick or two compared to yesterday.

Upper level ridging will push east overnight. While some high
clouds will spilling in east of the ridge axis, they will
mostly stay west of the area through dawn, allowing for valley
fog to develop once again.

The upper level ridge will remain in control for Friday, with
southwesterly flow pushing temperatures well into the 80s. The
quiet weather won`t last long, however. Another upper low will
lumber across the Great Lakes, sending a shortwave trough into
western NY/PA towards Friday evening. While most of the day will
be dry, an isolated showers or thunderstorm may work into the
Finger Lakes before evening. Then showers and thunderstorms will
spread east through Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update:

The weekend is looking unsettled as an upper level trough
slowly makes its way into our region. The troughs eastward
motion gets slowed down by Hurricane Ernesto so it will take the
whole weekend for the trough to swing through with frequent
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday has the better
chance of some stronger thunderstorms with shear around 20 to 30
knots though with the clouds and showers around, instability is
going to be limited. Sunday will have a cold front move through
as a low slowly moves through the Great Lakes with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Shear is weaker on
Sunday with weak lapse rates so the severe threat is low. Monday
will be the day that the upper level trough axis swings through
bringing another round of rain but once again shear and
instability are limited.

Thunderstorm chances were raised for the afternoons as the cold
air aloft will help destabilize the atmosphere easier.
Precipitable water values will be high through the weekend,
largely between 1.5 and 2 inches so with recent rain and likely
slow moving storms, flash flooding is a concern Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 PM Update:

The long term is looking much drier and cooler as Hurricane
Ernesto moves into Maritime Canada leading to prolonged
northerly flow. Models all have dry air advecting in with mean
precipitable water values down under an inch in to next weekend.
Given the wet soils and warm Great Lakes, there could be enough
evaporation to give sufficient moisture for pop up afternoon
showers or lake effect rain but kept chances of precipitation
out of the grids for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours. Clear skis
persist overnight allowing for another round of locally dense
valley fog to develop across the area during the pre-dawn hours.
Went with Below Alt Mins at ELM given high confidence, guidance
hints at light fog at RME, ITH, and BGM. Can`t rule out brief
fog crawling up into AVP, but confidence was too low to include
with this set of TAFs.

.Outlook...

Friday Night...Scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms at
times, with associated brief restrictions.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...ES/MPH