


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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979 FXUS61 KBGM 040610 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 210 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area this evening, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Quiet, calm and cool tonight following an afternoon of destructive storms across the Southern Tier and NEPA. Temps tonight will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s with dewpoints in the low 50s. It will be a weather day for the books for 4th of July festivities. The center of a surface high pressure system will move over the region today. With mid and upper level ridging building in from the west, winds will be out of the NW, keeping conditions sunny and dry with pleasant temperatures. Morning temperatures in the 60s will climb into the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon. A few 80s may pop up in the valleys of the Southern Tier and NEPA, but most should remain in the 70s. Fireworks weather in the evening will be clear and crisp, with temperatures quickly falling into the low 60s after sunset due to very dry air at the surface. If enjoying an outdoor fireworks show, a light jacket may be a good idea. Overnight weather will continue to be clear and "cold" for this time of year. With dry air at the surface, clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s for most, with higher elevations seeing upper 40s. Saturday will see a return of warm weather as the mid and upper level ridges move eastward and warm air from the central us spills into the region. Winds become more WSW as the day progresses, pushing temps into the low to mid 80s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 1230 PM Update... Stuck with NBM forecast with no changes and high pressure through the weekend. There still remains a chance to see heat advisory criteria (HI>= 95F) in NY urban areas on Sunday, but heat index values will remain PA criteria (HI>=100F). 305 AM Update High pressure remains in place on Saturday, with sunny skies, low to moderate humidity and above average high temperatures well into the 80s for most locations. No changes for Saturday night, with high pressure still in place but it will be more humid and muggy, with lows in the 60s. Upper level ridge moves over the area on Sunday with a southwesterly return flow in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring hot and humid conditions as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 579dm and 850mb temperatures jump up to +19C. Latest guidance has afternoon highs on Sunday reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. These temperatures will combine with dew points in the mid to upper 60s to bring heat indices into the low/mid 90s in the valleys. A few locations could get close to heat advisory criteria, and is something that will need to be watched in the coming days. There is a chance for a few showers or isolated t`storms Sunday night as the upper level trough over the central great lakes gradually drifts east...but overall likely staying precipitation free, but humid and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 60s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1230 PM Update... No notable changes have been made to the long term forecast and stuck with NBM through the period. Heat could be an issue on Monday, but there is some potential for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening that could limit heating. Those showers and storms may continue into the overnight hours on Tuesday as slow moving front sags southward through the region. Behind that front, models diverge in solutions with timing of an upper trough towards the end of the week. At this time, NBM brings in high chance to likely PoPs by Thursday afternoon, but this could significantly change in the coming days if the upper trough is delayed or less amplified than currently advertised. 305 AM Update A rather active summer weather patter is shaping up for much of the long term period. A weak frontal system passed through the area on Monday, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. Deep layer, 0-6km shear values are progged to be between 20-30 kts, which is modest, but could still allow for some organized convection to develop in a potentially moderately unstable atmosphere, as MLCAPE reaches 800-1500 J/kg. The heat still remains on Monday, as 850mb temperatures surge to about +20C along and ahead of the front. This will support highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s...with the highest readings over the southern tier and NE PA. Dew points will be quite high in the mid- 60s to lower 70s in the afternoon. This will bring the heat index to the upper 80s to mid-90s...and perhaps even 95 to 100 in the Wyoming Valley region. The slow moving front looks to potentially stall or washout near the Twin Tiers for Tuesday. This will keep a slight chance to chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast on Tuesday. Dew points don`t fall very much at all, but temperatures should be about 5 degrees lower as light northwest winds take hold. Perhaps a few lingering showers into Tuesday night near and east-southeast of Binghamton otherwise partly cloudy and seasonably mild. Another weak front moving in from the Great Lakes region will keep a chance for showers and isolated t`storms in the forecast Wednesday, along with warm and humid typical mid summer conditions. There is increasing timing and position differences in the 00z deterministic model guidance by the middle to end of next week. With this in mind, decided to keep the official forecast in line with the NBM ensemble weighted guidance. This brings another trough and associated front through the area next Thursday, with high chance to low end likely PoPs for showers and storms. Temperatures remain steady, just a few degrees above average during the day and overnight.&& && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period as high pressure moves over the region. Fog is filling into the valleys of NEPA, the western Southern Tier and Catskills. Satellite images show fog moving into the Wyoming Valley in NEPA, but the wind field should keep fog and restrictions out of KAVP. Outlook... Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK/KL/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM LONG TERM...MPK/MJM AVIATION...JTC