561
FXUS61 KBGM 170736
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
336 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
weekend, especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will
trend cooler though the weekend. Drier conditions will return
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1150 PM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no changed were made with
this update.

650 PM update...

No significant changes made to the near term forecast as weak
echoes on the radar continue to trickle in from the west and
clouds gradually thicken west to east as seen on the latest
satellite imagery. Still expecting multiple waves of light to
moderate rain showers to begin later tonight and continue
through the weekend.

345 PM Update...
Upper level ridge axis runs across central NY and PA, while an
upper low is carving itself out over the western Great Lakes.
High clouds are slowly creeping closer as the ridge slowly
shifts east, and very spotty showers are also noted over parts
of western NY, and moreso over western PA and Ohio.

The ridge axis will drift east into New England overnight, with
weak PVA bringing scattered showers into the region late tonight
into Saturday morning. Models have trended weaker and more
spotty with this initial round of showers.

Forcing during the day Saturday also has trended weaker, and a
fairly strong inversion around 900-800 mb will limit instability
over all but the far western Finger Lakes region. Isolated
severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but the risk looks to
be limited to far western portions of the Finger Lakes Region
and nearby Southern Tier counties.

Considering the trends, Saturday might not be too terrible all
things considered, with relatively spotty precip, particularly
across Central NY. Shower coverage looks to be somewhat higher
across the Poconos and Catskills. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will become more likely heading into Saturday
night and Sunday as the upper low moves closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update:

An upper-level low opens into a trough that will move into the
Northeast Sunday night and into Monday. This will keep showers over
the region throughout much of the short term forecast period. With
this system, there will be plenty of moisture. PWATs are expected to
max out between 1.7 to 2.0. The concern for localized flooding will
mainly be Sunday night. Some lingering issues will be possible
Monday as well, but the risk will be lower. A cold front will push
through late Monday and overnight, so showers continue through
Monday night as well, but are expected to be lighter. A Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall covers areas along and east of I-81 on
Monday.

Models are showing some instability, so thunderstorms will also be
possible, especially Monday afternoon. MLCAPE values will be less
than 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will only be 20 to 30 kts. The
threat for stronger storms is low at this time, especially with
better conditions expected south of our region.

Temperatures Sunday night will fall into the 60s. Then on Monday,
they won`t rebound much and only max out in the 70s. Strong
northerly flow will advect colder air behind the cold front so temps
will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM Update:

Showers and isolated will linger into Tuesday, though the best
chances will be east of I-81 and mainly over the Catskills and
Poconos. High pressure and drier air will be filling in behind these
departing showers, which will result in an extended period of dry
conditions lasting through the end of the week. After a cool day on
Tuesday of 60s for highs and 40s for nighttime lows, temperatures
trend warmer but will remain comfortable. Highs will be in the 70s
and lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to start the period, but MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings
will be moving in later this morning, along with scattered rain
showers. The one terminal that might remain mainly VFR is KSYR,
but there is still a possibility for brief MVFR ceiling
restrictions there later this morning. There is a possibility
for some thunderstorms at times, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at any particular terminal at this time.

.Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/BJT/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJG/BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPH
AVIATION...BJG